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Minnesota Delegate Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | March 1, 2016 at 11:50:31 PM CT 0 Comments

All media outlets have called Minnesota for Bernie Sanders. The general trend seems to indicate that he'll win by around 20%. The table below is taken from politico's results which are convenientally report by congressional district. At the time I grabbed the data, 66.6% of the results were reported.

DistrictDelegatesBernie VotesHillary VotesBernie DelegatesHillary Delegates
155,8273,42732
266,9965,31333
376,4825,77243
4710,4977,55643
596,6663,60563
655,4303,04232
754,7853,11532
866,5354,24842
All Districts5053,21836,0783020
At-Large17107
PLEO Pledged1064
Total774631

Using the delegate selection rules covered previously, Bernie can be expected to win 46 of the 77 pledged delegates. This is almost exactly inline with the current popular vote.

I'll update the table as more results are reported.

Update: 12:09 AM CT: 71.3% now reporting. Delegate expectations remained unchanged:

DistrictDelegatesBernie VotesHillary VotesBernie DelegatesHillary Delegates
155,827 3,427 32
267,518 5,742 33
378,361 7,620 43
4714,006 10,390 43
5913,379 8,071 63
657,392 4,431 32
755,620 3,470 32
8611,031 5,924 42
All Districts5073,134 49,075 3020
At-Large17107
PLEO Pledged1064
Total774631

The only district which may flip is CD2. Its currently 3.4 to 2.59 in un-rounded delegates; if the 3.4 becomes 3.5, Bernie will get another whole delegate and Clinton will lose one for a 2 delegate swing.

Update: 12:57 AM CT: 91.5% now reporting. CD2 isn't going to flip. CD5 is now the closet to flipping:

DistrictDelegatesBernie VotesHillary VotesBernie RawHillary RawBernie DelegatesHillary Delegates
158,416 4,262 3.3191361.68086432
267,524 5,756 3.3993982.60060233
3711,864 10,571 3.7017163.29828443
4714,632 10,979 3.9992193.00078143
5927,719 17,222 5.5510783.44892263
657,841 4,729 3.1189341.88106632
755,934 3,643 3.0980471.90195332
8614,318 7,146 4.0024231.99757742
All Districts5098,248 64,308 3020
At-Large1710.274716.725289107
PLEO Pledged106.0439483.95605264
Total774631

Hillary Clinton needs to overcome about a 500 vote deficit in CD5 to reach the next delegate threshold. CD5 is listed as 79% reporting with a total of about 45k votes. Using a straight extrapolation, there are about 8,500 votes unreported which means Hillary will need to win them by about 40-60%, which is 6% better than the reported 79%.

Update: 2:17 AM CT: 91.8% is now reporting, but CD8 went backwards which is likely just a data error:

DistrictDelegatesBernie VotesHillary VotesBernie DelegatesHillary DelegatesBernie DelegatesHillary Delegates
1510,423 5,326 3.3090991.69090132
269,456 6,711 3.5093712.49062942
3712,364 10,839 3.7300353.26996543
4716,972 12,108 4.085422.9145843
5939,476 21,337 5.8422383.15776263
657,841 4,729 3.1189341.88106632
755,934 3,643 3.0980471.90195332
8611,756 6,325 3.9011122.09888842
All Districts50114,222 71,018 3119
At-Large1710.482486.517523107
PLEO Pledged106.1661633.83383764
Total774730

The 2nd Congressional District did end up flipping to a 4-2 Bernie advantage. CD5 moved in the wrong direction for Hillary as well. The margin in CD2 is razor thin and there is still 20% left to report so the delegates may flip again. The total vote in 2008 was 214,066; the current tally is 185,240 which is slightly under the 2008 pace.

Update: March 7: The DFL released their officially unofficial results [5,6]:

DistrictDelegatesBernie VotesHillary VotesBernie DelegatesHillary Delegates
1510,8965,48832
2611,9138,538 33
3712,63611,15443
4721,141 14,91343
5941,16122,341 63
658,840 5,321 32
756,955 4,05032
8612,6876,57642
All Districts50126,22978,381 3119
At-Large271017
Total774730

The delegate count remained at 47-30 as projected, but there were deviations between our projections and the final outcome. Congressional District 2 ended up flipping back to a 3-3 split. The other change was the division of the 27 at-large pledged delegates. There are two groupings; an at-large pool of 17 and a PLEO Pledged pool of 10. Our projections had assumed two distinct calculations between these two groups, which would have yielded 16 for Bernie rather than a combined single group which yields 17. The allocation rules are clarified in the delegate selection plan in section C.4.a stating "The pledged PLEO slots shall be allocated among presidential preferences (including uncommitted status) on the same basis as the at-large delegates."

Update: March 9: Our last update is incorrect; the DFL released [7] a statement clarifying that the at-large and pledged PLEO delegates should be treated as two distinct groups for the purposes of delegate allocations. The at-large group allocates 10 delegates to Bernie and 7 to Hillary. The pledged PLEO then splits 6-4. The final allocations is 46-31.

DistrictDelegatesBernie VotesHillary VotesBernie DelegatesHillary Delegates
1510,8965,48832
2611,9138,538 33
3712,63611,15443
4721,141 14,91343
5941,16122,341 63
658,840 5,321 32
756,955 4,05032
8612,6876,57642
All Districts50126,22978,381 3119
At-Large17107
Pledged PLEO1064
Total774631

Here is the relevant quote from the DFL stating the correction:

On caucus night, we tabulated the 17 at-large delegates and 10 party leader and elected officials (PLEO) delegates as one group of 27 delegates. The two groups should have been kept separate. Each group is tied to the statewide results, however, they are two separate pools of delegates. When the delegate calculation is applied to the two separately, each group has a remainder delegate which goes to the candidate with the highest remainder. Clinton has the highest remainder in both cases and thus earns one more delegate.

Source: Statement from the DFL [7]

Updated on March 9, 2016 at 10:19:56 PM CT

Sources
1

Retrieved on March 2, 2016 at 12:03:18 AM CT | Revision: 1

2
static.politico.com Internal Politico Data Keys

Retrieved on March 2, 2016 at 12:30:41 AM CT | Revision: 1

3

Retrieved on March 2, 2016 at 12:52:35 AM CT | Revision: 1

4

Retrieved on March 2, 2016 at 2:14:46 AM CT | Revision: 1

5

Retrieved on March 7, 2016 at 10:11:28 PM CT | Revision: 1

6

Retrieved on March 7, 2016 at 10:11:45 PM CT | Revision: 1

7

Retrieved on March 9, 2016 at 10:13:15 PM CT | Revision: 1

8

Retrieved on March 9, 2016 at 10:13:38 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: mncaucus, minnesota, dem2016

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