Polls just closed in Michigan. Here's the first delegate projections using data from the Michigan Secretary of State's unofficial results :
Update 8:19 PM CT: Second update with a few more counties; Bernie still leads:
Update 8:23 PM CT: Third update; Bernie is projected to win 51-48. SOS publishes data every 10 minutes. It takes a couple minutes to enter the data and double check that the graphics rendered correctly:
Update 8:35 PM CT: Fourth update. On the previous three graphics I accidentally assigned the total result to district #1 and district #1 to #2. Reporting counties have not diverged. The SOS data is a quite a bit behind the media outlets, but media outlets uselessly report results at the county level:
Update 9:06 PM CT: Fifth update was a minor change in the first district that didn't alter the delegates:
Update 9:18 PM CT: Sixth update was another minor change in the first district that didn't alter the delegates.
Update 9:32 PM CT: Seventh update had small changes to districts 1 and 4, no delegate changes.
Update 9:44 PM CT: Eighth update introduced data from the fifth district and about a 15k vote increase in the first:
Update 9:50 PM CT: Ninth update; results are starting to be more significant now. The sixth district now has data. The SOS website is miles behind any media reporting, but the real time nature is still interesting:
Update 10:18 PM CT: Tenth update; 35 of 83 counties are reporting data. Huge total vote increase of at least 100k. Data from the 8,9, 11 and 14th districts now:
Update 10:31 PM CT: Eleventh update; 6 more counties, but nothing changes delegate wise.
Update 10:48 PM CT: Twelfth update; 7 more counties, now over 50% reporting. Districts 2 and 3 are now reporting. Only 12 and 13 are outstanding:
Update 10:54 PM CT: Thirteenth update; 55 of 83 counties reporting data. No delegates changed.
Update 11:05 PM CT: Fourteenth. Three more counties reported, but I'm not seeing any change in the democratic numbers.
Update 11:10 PM CT: Fifteenth; 2 more counties with additional votes added to district 4.
Update 11:20 PM CT: Sixteenth; 2 more counties. Updates are becoming smaller but more frequent. About a 15k vote update in district 2, which didn't alter delegates.
Update 11:25 PM CT: Seventeenth; additional 2 counties reported which affected district 1 and 8. District 1 has 31/32 counties reporting and is probably safely locked at the 4-2 ratio after oscillating from 3-3 to 4-2 for much of the night.
Update 11:37 PM CT: Eighteenth update; three additional counties with one each in the 5th, 6th and 10th districts. No delegates changed, which solidifies these counties. Bernie is at 38 district delegates to Hillary's 31 with 16 undecided between districts 13 and 14. Bernie will likely take 1 extra delegate among the at-large and pledged PLEO groupings. Of the 45, he'll likely end up with 23.
Update 11:46 PM CT: Nineteenth; one county updated in district 7 no delegate changes. I suspect that the delegates will remain unchanged until the 3 counties in district 13 and 14 report. The 12th district is 76.5% white and includes portions of Wayne County Washtenaw County. The 13th district is wholly contained within Wayne County, which is an urban suburb of Detroit with a 56.3% Black population.
Update 11:52 PM CT: Twentieth update. One county from district 2; Bernie increased his lead by about 5% but it doesn't matter because he's at ~60% and already got 3 of 5 delegates secured.
Update 11:59 PM CT: 21st update. Another county from district 2 which changes nothing.
Update 12:02 PM CT 22nd and final update for the night. I'm going to cheat a little bit and look at CNN results to extrapolate the final remaining counties while the SOS website updates. I have an automated script running which will capture the SOS results every 2 minutes throughout the night, so I can fill in the blanks tomorrow.
Using the CNN data, Clinton is winning Wayne County by about 60-40 and Bernie is winning Washtenaw County about 55-45. District 12 has 7 delegates which means every 14% proportions a delegate. We're going to give Bernie 4 delegates in district 12, because he appears likely to win the district, but with less than 57%. District 13 has 9 which is an 11% threshold. We're going to give Hillary 5 delegates because she will win the district, but with less than 61%.
That brings the final delegate count to 70-60 in Bernie's favor. Here is the final allocation for the night:
We'll confirm our projections with the final SOS data tomorrow along with fixing the first couple entries where the districts got transposed.
Update 8:38 AM CT: The SOS data now has all 83 counties reporting, but have partial data in districts 13 and 14 due to Wayne County having not fully reported. The total delegate count shifted by 6 overnight away from Bernie. He had led 70-60, but the latest batch of data swayed the delegates to 67-63. The changes occured in districts 5 and 13. The statewide counted also caused an at-large delegate to move from Bernie to Hillary.
Updated on March 9, 2016 at 8:40:20 AM CT