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Final Wisconsin Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | April 5, 2016 at 6:08:27 PM CT 0 Comments

Wisconsin will allocate 79 pledged delegates this evening after polls close at 8 PM CT. The polling projections are below with a gentle reminder that these are not intended to be predictive, but rather an empirical statement given publicly released data:

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)
Re-Weighted [42m/58f]47.90%46.07%
Re-Weighted [8b/87w]48.88%44.53%

From a demographic perspective Bernie is likely to win Wisconsin, and the polling seems to agree. The issues with sub-sample accuracy as discussed in prior articles relating to Ohio and Michigan have not manifested in Wisconsin. Each candidate is winning in the expected demographics, Bernie among whites and males, and Hillary among blacks and females. The one demographic of interest is Hispanic's where the projection places both candidates above 50%. Our projections do not make assumptions or attempt to estimate turnout so the fact that their sums are above 100% is simply a reflection of the underlying data.

Wisconsin's data also enabled us to re-adjust the weightings for both gender and race based on 2008 exit polls [1]. The gender turnout in 2008 was 58% female and 42% male; the re-adjustment altered the overall margin by .38% which indicates that polling may have slightly over-sampled males. The race turnout was 87% white, 8% black and 4% Hispanic; this translates to a 93-7% ratio between blacks and whites which is what our re-adjustment considers; the remaining 5 percent is unchanged. This adjustment caused a drop in Bernie's support which implies whites may have been under-sampled. This all of course presumes that turnout in 2008 matches turnout today which has generally been the case this cycle.

As far as delegate allocations go, the final projection based on a uniform assumption hasn't changed since Sunday; Bernie is still projected to amass 42 of the 79 delegates, and come away with a 5 delegate advantage:

2016 Wisconsin Democratic Primary Delegates12345678ALPLBernie SandersHillary

Wyoming is next, with a caucus this Saturday; if you attend report your county's results.


Retrieved on April 5, 2016 at 6:09:50 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: wiprimary, wisconsin

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