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Final New York Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | April 19, 2016 at 6:20:36 PM CT 0 Comments

Polling from New York has consistently shown the margin to be about 15%; the final polling projections are below:

New York Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)

The underpinning in all New York polling is the presumption that the electorate will differ from other similar states due to the nature of the closed primary. In order to vote in New York, you had to have registered as a Democrat in October, or have changed your registration by the end of March; these New York rules greatly differ from all other states with closer-to-election deadlines or no registration requirement at all.

There are a number of interesting story-lines to follow with respect to sub-sample demographics. Bernie is expected to lose every demographic above, but we expect him to win at least one, with a possible ceiling of three.

  • Age 18-29: This is Bernie's strongest demographic; the question isn't if he is going to win, but rather by how much? Our previous analysis has shown that polling anticipates a smaller margin, in this demographic, relative to other northern states which have previously voted. This trend has held in newly released polls as well.
  • Gender: We've written extensively about Bernie's under-polling among males. We expect this trend to continue in New York as Bernie has yet to lose the demographic in a northern state.
  • Hispanics: This demographic is largely un-quantifiable given the lack of real empirical data. The polling has been volatile with high margins of error. In states which have released exit polls, Bernie has narrowly won Hispanics in two states, Illinois and Nevada, while losing by 40%ish in Texas and Florida. In New York's 2008 election [1], Hispanics accounted for 10% of the electorate.

The polls close at 9 PM ET and we'll be providing real-time delegate assignments for New York. Here's a sneak peak; the image will update as results are reported.

We've also disabled some of the sites functionality in an attempt to alleviate performance concerns associated with the delegate reporting.

Update [April 20, 12:15 AM CT]: We entered incorrect response information for race in the latest Emerson College poll; we have corrected the values and regret the mistake. The error strongly skewed the racial projections towards Clinton. We mistakenly entered responses pertaining to the "Who do you expect to win" question rather than candidate preference.

Updated on April 20, 2016 at 12:16:51 AM CT


Retrieved on April 14, 2016 at 12:45:13 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: nyprimary, newyork, dem2016

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