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Final Indiana Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | May 3, 2016 at 5:40:38 PM CT 0 Comments

Indiana is split into two time zones so some voting ends in about half and hour, and the rest closes in 90 minutes. There were just 6 polls in Indiana, which is just enough to create some uncertainty with a generally close margin:

Indiana Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)
All [Linear]43.59%51.54%
Female [Poly, Linear]37.58%57.00%
Male [Poly, Linear]53.89%42.69%
Blacks [Last]23.00%73.00%
Whites [Poly, Linear]48.95%47.26%

The sub-sample demographics are fairly sparse so the results above don't use a local regression, instead they use the simpler least-squares algorithm.

We've had some hosting issues today, so this write-up will be a bit abbreviated. We took a quick pass through the delegate selection plan [1]; overall Indiana will allocate 83 pledged delegates based on today's outcome. The delegate margin, on a percentage basis, will likely be smaller than the comparable statewide result given that 6 of the 11 regions allocate even delegates. Of the odd regions, three will allocated just 5 delegates which means the split will assuredly be 3-2 with little possibility for 4-1.

The table below illustrates the thresholds in each district and the associated delegate assignments. If the winner prevails by less than 5.5% in each region, they'll net 5 delegates which would be inline with the overall percentage based vote margin. Once the 5.5% threshold is eclipsed, there are fewer delegates awarded.

RegionDelegates50%+1 AllotmentNext Margin (%)Next Allotment
PLEO Pledged95-45.56%10-8

We will unfortunately be unable to provide real-time delegate assignments as no source will be providing results at the congressional district level. Many of the district's contain whole counties so it will likely be possible to provide a rough estimation through out the night; we'll throw out periodic updates on twitter @HWAV_TJHalva.


Retrieved on March 20, 2016 at 8:28:26 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: inprimary, indiana, dem2016

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