Indiana is split into two time zones so some voting ends in about half and hour, and the rest closes in 90 minutes. There were just 6 polls in Indiana, which is just enough to create some uncertainty with a generally close margin:
The sub-sample demographics are fairly sparse so the results above don't use a local regression, instead they use the simpler least-squares algorithm.
We've had some hosting issues today, so this write-up will be a bit abbreviated. We took a quick pass through the delegate selection plan ; overall Indiana will allocate 83 pledged delegates based on today's outcome. The delegate margin, on a percentage basis, will likely be smaller than the comparable statewide result given that 6 of the 11 regions allocate even delegates. Of the odd regions, three will allocated just 5 delegates which means the split will assuredly be 3-2 with little possibility for 4-1.
The table below illustrates the thresholds in each district and the associated delegate assignments. If the winner prevails by less than 5.5% in each region, they'll net 5 delegates which would be inline with the overall percentage based vote margin. Once the 5.5% threshold is eclipsed, there are fewer delegates awarded.
|Region||Delegates||50%+1 Allotment||Next Margin (%)||Next Allotment|
We will unfortunately be unable to provide real-time delegate assignments as no source will be providing results at the congressional district level. Many of the district's contain whole counties so it will likely be possible to provide a rough estimation through out the night; we'll throw out periodic updates on twitter @HWAV_TJHalva.