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Final West Virginia Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | May 8, 2016 at 10:56:04 PM CT 0 Comments

West Virginia votes on Tuesday, but we're doing the polling projections early because we don't suspect there will be any additional polls beyond the three we've already collated:

SampleSanders (D)Clinton (D)
WV: Repass Research and Strategic Consulting, Voter Survey Service
WV: Public Policy Polling
WV: Repass Research and Strategic Consulting, West Virginia MetroNews
Feb 11-16, 2016

The trend lines are generally useless with just three polls, but here they are anyway for consistency with our other projections. There are a lot of undecideds still:

West Virginia Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)
All [Poly, Linear]45.93%40.09%

There were two additional polls conducted in West Virginia from the last 18 months, but they didn't released enough information to warrant inclusion. We haven't talked about our own methodology recently, so here's a quick recap. Our intent is to catalog any publicly released poll, from a primary source, in which the sample dates, sample size, and sample method are released. We collect additional data as well like question wording and sponsorship, but those items are not required for inclusion.

In the case of the two polls from Virginia, one was conducted by Orion Strategies in August, and they failed to provide the sample dates. The other was conducted more recently in March by Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies and failed to detail the sample method beyond the very vague term "interview." Neither of these polls are particular relevant to our contemporary understanding of Tuesday's election, but for historical purposes, their topline results are below; we've also mirrored the primary sources.

SampleSanders (D)Clinton (D)
WV: Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies, West Virginia Veterans [1]
March 2-6, 2016
WV: Orion Strategies [2]
August 2016

West Virginia will allocate a total of 29 pledged delegates [3]; here's how they're allocated:

RegionDelegates50%+1 AllotmentNext Margin (%)Next Allotment
PLEO Pledged32-170%3-0

Bernie is likely to win West Virginia overall, but the delegate margin is likely to be small. If either candidate wins by less than 16.67% in every Congressional District, they'll pickup just +3 delegates. The greatest delegate margin that could reasonably be attained is +7 if a candidate were to win CD-3 by greater than 16.67% and the statewide total by greater than 16.67%. The other thresholds are simply unattainable.

Explicitly provided Congressional District results are unlikely to be provided, but they could be constructed from county level results as each district contains full counties. There aren't enough delegates at stake, and CD-3 is the only interesting district, to justify the time commitment of generating the real-time delegate assignment maps. As a simple proxy for the result in CD-3, pay attention to Raleigh and Cabell counties as they are demographically representative of the district and the most populous.

Updated on May 8, 2016 at 11:00:58 PM CT


Retrieved on May 8, 2016 at 10:58:33 PM CT | Revision: 1


Retrieved on May 8, 2016 at 11:00:01 PM CT | Revision: 1


Retrieved on May 8, 2016 at 11:00:16 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: wvpriamry, westvirginia, dem2016

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