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Final NH Primary Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | February 9, 2016 at 5:30:39 PM CT 0 Comments

New Hampshire polls close in about 35 minutes. The general expectation is that Sanders will win with a percentage in the high 50s; here is the latest collection of polling projections:

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential CaucusSanders (D)Clinton (D)
Re-Weighted Gender (43m/57f)55.41%40.58%

I've again, like in Iowa, weighted gender against the 2008 exit polls [1].

A new wrinkle to the methodology was introduced in New Hampshire that wasn't pertinent to Iowa; the inclusion of tracking polls. There were three main entities which conducted several polls with overlapping samples. What this means is that each poll includes participants from a previous sample. In an effort to not double count results, overlapping sample dates from the same pollster are excluded. The excluded polls are denoted in the main table with grayed out text; they are not used in the projection math nor included on the graph.

New Hampshire has 16 delegates [2] directly elected as a result of today's binding primary. Those 16 delegates will then go on to elect 5 more delegates in April; this is the key threshold to watch. Each campaign wants to win at least 9 of the 16 delegates to virtually ensure they get the additional 5 later on. An allocation of 9 of 16 corresponds to 56.25% of the overall delegates; this is determined at the district level. Again, like Iowa, a direct popular vote victory does not ensure more delegates.


Retrieved on February 9, 2016 at 5:32:56 PM CT | Revision: 1


Retrieved on February 9, 2016 at 5:33:14 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: dem2016, nhprimary

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