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2016 Presidential Polling

Incumbent: Barack Obama (D) | 4 candidates | Election on November 8, 2016122 polls

September 26, 2016 at 3:43:58 PM CT HowWillAmericaVote.com Bernie Sanders (D) 302Donald Trump (R) 56 Alabama No Data 9 Electoral Votes Alaska No Data 3 Electoral Votes Arizona Bernie Sanders42%Donald Trump39%Gary Johnson6%Jill Stein2% 11 Electoral Votes Arkansas No Data 6 Electoral Votes California Bernie Sanders59.39%Donald Trump29.65% 55 Electoral Votes Colorado Donald Trump46%Bernie Sanders44% 9 Electoral Votes Connecticut Bernie Sanders54%Donald Trump35% 7 Electoral Votes Delaware No Data 3 Electoral Votes District of Columbia No Data 3 EVs Florida Bernie Sanders41.69%Donald Trump40.28%Gary Johnson5%Jill Stein1% 29 Electoral Votes Georgia Donald Trump46%Bernie Sanders36%Gary Johnson5%Jill Stein1% 16 Electoral Votes Hawaii No Data 4 Electoral Votes Idaho No Data 4 Electoral Votes Illinois Bernie Sanders60%Donald Trump30% 20 Electoral Votes Indiana No Data 11 Electoral Votes Iowa Bernie Sanders48.97%Donald Trump40% 6 Electoral Votes Kansas No Data 6 Electoral Votes Kentucky No Data 8 Electoral Votes Louisiana Donald Trump55%Bernie Sanders32% 8 Electoral Votes Maine Bernie Sanders57%Donald Trump31% 4 Electoral Votes Maryland Bernie Sanders60%Donald Trump29% 10 Electoral Votes Massachusetts Bernie Sanders63%Donald Trump28% 11 Electoral Votes Michigan Bernie Sanders49.12%Donald Trump35.91% 16 Electoral Votes Minnesota Bernie Sanders53%Donald Trump38% 10 Electoral Votes Mississippi No Data 6 Electoral Votes Missouri No Data 10 Electoral Votes Montana Donald Trump46.24%Bernie Sanders40.14% 3 Electoral Votes Nebraska No Data 5 Electoral Votes Nevada No Data 6 Electoral Votes New Hampshire Bernie Sanders52.97%Donald Trump35.09% 4 Electoral Votes New Jersey Bernie Sanders53.15%Donald Trump33.48% 14 Electoral Votes New Mexico No Data 5 Electoral Votes New York Bernie Sanders15.99%Donald Trump8.93% 29 Electoral Votes North Carolina Bernie Sanders43.03%Donald Trump40.14%Gary Johnson3%Jill Stein2% 15 Electoral Votes North Dakota No Data 3 Electoral Votes Ohio Bernie Sanders47.81%Donald Trump38.22% 18 Electoral Votes Oklahoma No Data 7 Electoral Votes Oregon No Data 7 Electoral Votes Pennsylvania Bernie Sanders45.2%Donald Trump38.49%Gary Johnson5%Jill Stein1% 20 Electoral Votes Rhode Island No Data 4 Electoral Votes South Carolina Donald Trump48%Bernie Sanders38% 9 Electoral Votes South Dakota No Data 3 Electoral Votes Tennessee No Data 11 Electoral Votes Texas No Data 38 Electoral Votes Utah Donald Trump36.93%Bernie Sanders35.67%Gary Johnson12.28% 6 Electoral Votes Vermont No Data 3 Electoral Votes Virginia Bernie Sanders55%Donald Trump33% 13 Electoral Votes Washington No Data 12 Electoral Votes West Virginia Donald Trump56%Bernie Sanders35% 5 Electoral Votes Wisconsin Bernie Sanders56.88%Donald Trump33.1%Gary Johnson0.18% 10 Electoral Votes Wyoming No Data 3 Electoral Votes
Johnson (L)Sanders (D)Stein (G)Trump (R)
Alabama
9 Electoral Votes
No Data
Alaska
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Arizona
11 Electoral Votes
6%42%
100%
2%39%
Arkansas
6 Electoral Votes
No Data
California
55 Electoral Votes
59.39%
100%
29.65%
Colorado
9 Electoral Votes
44%46%
100%
Connecticut
7 Electoral Votes
54%
100%
35%
Delaware
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
District of Columbia
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Florida
29 Electoral Votes
5%41.69%
100%
1%40.28%
Georgia
16 Electoral Votes
5%36%1%46%
100%
Hawaii
4 Electoral Votes
No Data
Idaho
4 Electoral Votes
No Data
Illinois
20 Electoral Votes
60%
100%
30%
Indiana
11 Electoral Votes
No Data
Iowa
6 Electoral Votes
48.97%
100%
40%
Kansas
6 Electoral Votes
No Data
Kentucky
8 Electoral Votes
No Data
Louisiana
8 Electoral Votes
32%55%
100%
Maine
4 Electoral Votes
57%
100%
31%
Maryland
10 Electoral Votes
60%
100%
29%
Massachusetts
11 Electoral Votes
63%
100%
28%
Michigan
16 Electoral Votes
49.12%
91.38%
35.91%
Minnesota
10 Electoral Votes
53%
100%
38%
Mississippi
6 Electoral Votes
No Data
Missouri
10 Electoral Votes
No Data
Montana
3 Electoral Votes
40.14%46.24%
100%
Nebraska
5 Electoral Votes
No Data
Nevada
6 Electoral Votes
No Data
New Hampshire
4 Electoral Votes
52.97%
100%
35.09%
New Jersey
14 Electoral Votes
53.15%
100%
33.48%
New Mexico
5 Electoral Votes
No Data
New York
29 Electoral Votes
15.99%
81.14%
8.93%
North Carolina
15 Electoral Votes
3%43.03%
100%
2%40.14%
North Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Ohio
18 Electoral Votes
47.81%
100%
38.22%
Oklahoma
7 Electoral Votes
No Data
Oregon
7 Electoral Votes
No Data
Pennsylvania
20 Electoral Votes
5%45.2%
100%
1%38.49%
Rhode Island
4 Electoral Votes
No Data
South Carolina
9 Electoral Votes
38%48%
100%
South Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Tennessee
11 Electoral Votes
No Data
Texas
38 Electoral Votes
No Data
Utah
6 Electoral Votes
12.28%35.67%36.93%
65.3%
Vermont
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Virginia
13 Electoral Votes
55%
100%
33%
Washington
12 Electoral Votes
No Data
West Virginia
5 Electoral Votes
35%56%
100%
Wisconsin
10 Electoral Votes
0.18%56.88%
100%
33.1%
Wyoming
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Total
538 Electoral Votes
4.78%302
100% >270
1.29%56
National Methodology & Explanation

Our objective is to assess the accuracy of polling, not to predict the outcome of the election. The values depicted above intend to represent an aggregate view of state-level public polling. Our values can be thought of as the polling implied outcome; if polling is correct, the election's outcome should match our values.

Each state's outcome is treated as an independent event as is each candidate's percentage. In reality this is not the case. Outcomes are most certainly correlated based upon empirical information like geography and demographics. Our view, which is consistent with letting polling tell the story, is that any such correlation should be observable and expressed through polling.

Candidate totals are calculated using a quadratic local regression with an alpha of 80%; if too few polls are available a least-squares regression is used. The calculated value for each candidate’s regression, along with the variance, is used as input to calculate the probability that a given candidate's total will be greatest. A standard distribution is used to determine the likelihood of victory in a given state. Once each state's probability is known, a 51-dimension cartesian product is generated to assess the likelihood of receiving 270 or more electoral votes.

More thorough information containing technical details and our data collection criteria is available in our methodology series.

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