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Final SC Primary Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | February 27, 2016 at 5:30:02 PM CT 0 Comments

Bernie Sanders is going to get crushed in South Carolina today when the polls close in about 30 minutes. The polling projects he will lose every demographic for which we aggregate data, including race which is new:

South Carolina Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)
Re-Weighted Gender (39m/61f)32.06%57.70%
Re-Weighted Race (46w/54b)34.37%59.77%

We've again re-weighted the projections to reflect the 2008 exit poll [1]; 39% male to 61% and 45% white to 54% black. Its again important to note that these projections are not intended to predict the outcome, but rather express the result as represented in publicly released polling. In general, polling in SC has been very poor with just 2 polls released in the last 10 days. I'll publish the pollster rankings once results are solidified.

The race based weighting is slightly different than the gender based rating, as it is not a binary choice, but the concept is the same. When calculating the race re-weighting, black and white data is altered while any other race sub-samples are preserved; only the black-to-white ratio is adjusted. The race projection has also been implemented on each state's page within the Project Turnout section. Going forward, my intent is to continue to collect gender data, while recording race crosstabs in states where they are significant or interesting. As of right now, I have been recording race data in Georgia and Texas.

Back to South Carolina. The SCDP Delegate Selection Plan [2] allocates 35 delegates to South Carolina's 7 congressional districts. These 35 delegates will be allocated in proportion to the vote received in each congressional district. There are then an additional 11 delegates allocated based on the total statewide vote. One at large delegate will be allocated for each 9% in support; 45% and 36% are the important thresholds for Bernie.


Retrieved on February 27, 2016 at 5:31:51 PM CT | Revision: 1


Retrieved on February 27, 2016 at 5:32:21 PM CT | Revision: 1

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