The New Hampshire Secretary of State has released their tabulated results from last Tuesday's Democratic Primary. The results have been aggregated below, including the 3475 write-ins cast:
The gender information presented above has been derived from the exit polling conducted by the National Election Poll. The table above contains the information necessary to calculate the empirical accuracy of any poll from New Hampshire using the gender expectation methodology
.
We took the most recent poll from each pollster which was conducted in the last 30 days; this is the resulting ranking. You'll notice that some pollsters don't contain values in the deviation columns, this is because that pollster didn't released enough information for the calculation to be conducted. These non-transparent polls do not have a ranking, but were included for the sake of completeness because they did conduct a poll within the last 30 days. Again, the lower the deviation the better; better polls are at the top of the table:
Poll | Topline Deviation | Male Deviation | Female Deviation | Re-Weighted Gender Deviation | Net Deviation |
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NH: Abt SRBI, University of Massachusetts Lowell, WHDH TV (NBC: Boston) Feb 5-7, 2016 | 6.47% | 4% | 6% | 4.87% | 14.87% |
NH: Marist Institute for Public Opinion, NBC News, Wall Street Journal Feb 2-3, 2016 | 2.47% | 10% | 7% | 2.27% | 19.27% |
NH: YouGov, University of Massachusetts Amherst, WBZ TV (CBS: Boston) Feb 2-4, 2016 | 4.82% | 8% | 8% | 5.02% | 21.02% |
NH: University of New Hampshire, CNN News, WMUR TV (ABC: New Hampshire) Feb 4-8, 2016 | 3.53% | 13% | 4% | 5.18% | 22.18% |
NH: Gravis Marketing, One America News Network Feb 2-4, 2016 | 6.47% | | | | |
NH: Anderson Robbins Research, Shaw & Company Research, Fox News Jan 18-21, 2016 | 7.82% | 10% | 6% | 6.62% | 22.62% |
NH: Emerson College Feb 4-7, 2016 | 10.46% | 6.1% | 11.85% | 8.71% | 26.65% |
NH: MassINC Polling Group, WBUR-FM (NPR: Boston) Feb 2-4, 2016 | 7.47% | 15% | 8% | 9.07% | 32.07% |
NH: Monmouth University Polling Institute Feb 4-6, 2016 | 12.47% | | | | |
NH: American Research Group Feb 7-8, 2016 | 13.47% | 11% | 13% | 12.77% | 36.77% |
NH: Suffolk University, Boston Globe Feb 2-4, 2016 | 13.47% | 10.16% | 17.32% | 12.75% | 40.23% |
NH: RKM Research and Communications, Boston Herald, Franklin Pierce University Feb 2-6, 2016 | 16.08% | 10.61% | 16.74% | 14.65% | 41.99% |
Update: The ranking table was updated to incorporate the final results from the official government entity. The previous table utilized media reported results which did not include non-major candidates. The reported values did not substantially change.
Updated on February 21, 2016 at 10:58:49 PM CT