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Undecided's in NH Feel The Bern?

By TJHalva | 1 point | February 9, 2016 at 10:58:55 PM CT 0 Comments

As of this writing, 85% of precincts have reported [1], and Bernie Sanders is maintaining a 21% lead over Hillary Clinton, 60%-39%. He'll probably end up receiving 10 of the 16 district delegates and 15 of the 21 bound to the primary's outcome.

The exit poll results are still subtly changing, but the data has coalesced around one central conclusion; undecided voters, those which did not indicate a preference in pre-election polling, chose Bernie. The table below reflects the current breakdown of the gender demographic, in the exit poll, at this exact point in time. I want to be clear that these numbers may change, but I don't expect them to change significantly:

NBC New Hampshire Democratic Exit Poll [1]TotalSanders (D)Clinton (D)

This next table, is a direct copy of our final polling projections, with an additional column to represent the number of undecided voters; it's a simple subtraction as the projected totals do not sum to 100%:

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential CaucusUndecidedSanders (D)Clinton (D)

This final table represents the deviation of the exit polls versus our projections:

Exit - ProjectionsSanders (D)Clinton (D)

The evident conclusion is that undecideds chose Bernie. If we look at each data point in the deviation table, it's less than 2% for 3 of 4; I would call these projections accurate. Where the numbers differed were in Bernie's projected female support. He not only got all of the undecided females but actually attracted more female support than the expectation. To restate this, roughly 5% of females were undecided and Bernie appears, at least empirically, to have won them all.

If we look at the overall projections, the same sort of trend holds for undecideds. There were 3-4% undecided depending on which of our projections you choose to observe. The overall outcome, currently, is basically our projection plus the allocation of all undecideds to Bernie.


Retrieved on February 9, 2016 at 11:00:40 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: dem2016, nhprimary

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