Recent Tweets

Matchup

Date Range

Sample

Interaction

Communication

Advertisement

2016 Presidential Polling Among Males

Incumbent: Barack Obama (D) | 5 candidates | Election on November 8, 20161060 polls

October 19, 2016 at 12:39:31 AM CT HowWillAmericaVote.com Hillary Clinton (D) 168Donald Trump (R) 342 Alabama No Data 9 Electoral Votes Alaska No Data 3 Electoral Votes Arizona Donald Trump41.24%Hillary Clinton38.93%Gary Johnson14.09%Jill Stein1.57% 11 Electoral Votes Arkansas Donald Trump62.5%Hillary Clinton26.04%Gary Johnson5.21%Jill Stein0.35% 6 Electoral Votes California Hillary Clinton53.13%Donald Trump36.76%Gary Johnson3.97%Jill Stein1.09% 55 Electoral Votes Colorado Hillary Clinton44.63%Donald Trump44.06%Gary Johnson5.98%Jill Stein2.21% 9 Electoral Votes Connecticut Donald Trump41.33%Hillary Clinton40.69%Gary Johnson12.63%Jill Stein2.57% 7 Electoral Votes Delaware Hillary Clinton42%Donald Trump35%Gary Johnson11%Jill Stein3% 3 Electoral Votes District of Columbia No Data 3 EVs Florida Donald Trump47.49%Hillary Clinton39.59%Gary Johnson6.31%Jill Stein1.65%Evan McMullin0% 29 Electoral Votes Georgia Donald Trump51.97%Hillary Clinton34.54%Gary Johnson7.22%Jill Stein2.21% 16 Electoral Votes Hawaii No Data 4 Electoral Votes Idaho Donald Trump42%Hillary Clinton29% 4 Electoral Votes Illinois Hillary Clinton46.88%Donald Trump35.68%Gary Johnson6.61%Jill Stein0.87% 20 Electoral Votes Indiana Donald Trump50%Hillary Clinton29%Gary Johnson13% 11 Electoral Votes Iowa Donald Trump48.79%Hillary Clinton28.77%Gary Johnson11.95%Jill Stein2.25% 6 Electoral Votes Kansas Donald Trump47.51%Hillary Clinton35.22%Gary Johnson8.31%Jill Stein2.33% 6 Electoral Votes Kentucky Donald Trump45.66%Hillary Clinton17.72%Gary Johnson9.9%Jill Stein3% 8 Electoral Votes Louisiana Donald Trump61.9%Hillary Clinton23.33%Gary Johnson7.62% 8 Electoral Votes Maine Donald Trump48.5%Hillary Clinton33.06%Gary Johnson8.56%Jill Stein5.61% 4 Electoral Votes Maryland Hillary Clinton53.74%Donald Trump32.17%Gary Johnson8%Jill Stein3% 10 Electoral Votes Massachusetts Hillary Clinton48.79%Donald Trump32.81%Gary Johnson6%Jill Stein4% 11 Electoral Votes Michigan Donald Trump46.82%Hillary Clinton39.31%Gary Johnson9.96%Jill Stein2.1% 16 Electoral Votes Minnesota Donald Trump45.63%Hillary Clinton39.23%Gary Johnson7.64%Jill Stein1.27% 10 Electoral Votes Mississippi Donald Trump57%Hillary Clinton33%Gary Johnson4%Jill Stein0% 6 Electoral Votes Missouri Donald Trump47.63%Hillary Clinton33.03%Gary Johnson6%Jill Stein3% 10 Electoral Votes Montana No Data 3 Electoral Votes Nebraska Donald Trump59.05%Hillary Clinton26.71%Gary Johnson9.2%Jill Stein0.59% 5 Electoral Votes Nevada Donald Trump44.2%Hillary Clinton41.51%Gary Johnson8.2%Jill Stein1.52% 6 Electoral Votes New Hampshire Donald Trump43.15%Hillary Clinton35.59%Gary Johnson6.55%Jill Stein1.29% 4 Electoral Votes New Jersey Donald Trump46.21%Hillary Clinton43.02%Gary Johnson7.37%Jill Stein0.85% 14 Electoral Votes New Mexico Hillary Clinton37.01%Donald Trump34.49%Gary Johnson20.25%Jill Stein2.5% 5 Electoral Votes New York Hillary Clinton46.1%Donald Trump35.73%Gary Johnson8%Jill Stein4% 29 Electoral Votes North Carolina Donald Trump47.37%Hillary Clinton38.63%Gary Johnson6.15%Jill Stein2.48% 15 Electoral Votes North Dakota Donald Trump53%Hillary Clinton26%Gary Johnson8%Jill Stein1% 3 Electoral Votes Ohio Donald Trump47.94%Hillary Clinton37.39%Gary Johnson6.7%Jill Stein1.39% 18 Electoral Votes Oklahoma Donald Trump56.9%Hillary Clinton25.6% 7 Electoral Votes Oregon Hillary Clinton39.53%Donald Trump34.51%Gary Johnson9%Jill Stein3% 7 Electoral Votes Pennsylvania Donald Trump44.53%Hillary Clinton41.62%Gary Johnson5.65%Jill Stein2.36% 20 Electoral Votes Rhode Island Hillary Clinton42.29%Donald Trump40.14%Gary Johnson7.53%Jill Stein7.53% 4 Electoral Votes South Carolina Donald Trump58.36%Hillary Clinton31.09%Gary Johnson3.33%Jill Stein0.97% 9 Electoral Votes South Dakota No Data 3 Electoral Votes Tennessee Donald Trump47%Hillary Clinton32%Gary Johnson9%Jill Stein1% 11 Electoral Votes Texas Donald Trump49.51%Hillary Clinton34.37%Gary Johnson5.79%Jill Stein1.33%Evan McMullin0% 38 Electoral Votes Utah Donald Trump41.32%Hillary Clinton23.14%Gary Johnson12.72%Evan McMullin7%Jill Stein0% 6 Electoral Votes Vermont Hillary Clinton39.13%Donald Trump30.8%Gary Johnson20.65%Jill Stein6.16% 3 Electoral Votes Virginia Donald Trump41.47%Hillary Clinton37.31%Gary Johnson11.56%Evan McMullin2%Jill Stein1.49% 13 Electoral Votes Washington Hillary Clinton42%Donald Trump33%Gary Johnson13%Jill Stein4% 12 Electoral Votes West Virginia Donald Trump49.28%Hillary Clinton28.71%Gary Johnson12.44%Jill Stein4.31% 5 Electoral Votes Wisconsin Donald Trump42.7%Hillary Clinton38.9%Gary Johnson5.08%Jill Stein1.11% 10 Electoral Votes Wyoming No Data 3 Electoral Votes
Clinton (D)Johnson (L)McMullin (I)Stein (G)Trump (R)
Alabama
9 Electoral Votes
No Data
Alaska
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Arizona
11 Electoral Votes
38.93%14.09%1.57%41.24%
72.62%
Arkansas
6 Electoral Votes
26.04%5.21%0.35%62.5%
100%
California
55 Electoral Votes
53.13%
99.78%
3.97%1.09%36.76%
Colorado
9 Electoral Votes
44.63%
55.1%
5.98%2.21%44.06%
Connecticut
7 Electoral Votes
40.69%12.63%2.57%41.33%
100%
Delaware
3 Electoral Votes
42%
100%
11%3%35%
District of Columbia
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Florida
29 Electoral Votes
39.59%6.31%0%1.65%47.49%
83.89%
Georgia
16 Electoral Votes
34.54%7.22%2.21%51.97%
100%
Hawaii
4 Electoral Votes
No Data
Idaho
4 Electoral Votes
29%42%
100%
Illinois
20 Electoral Votes
46.88%
99.52%
6.61%0.87%35.68%
Indiana
11 Electoral Votes
29%13%50%
100%
Iowa
6 Electoral Votes
28.77%11.95%2.25%48.79%
99.96%
Kansas
6 Electoral Votes
35.22%8.31%2.33%47.51%
100%
Kentucky
8 Electoral Votes
17.72%9.9%3%45.66%
100%
Louisiana
8 Electoral Votes
23.33%7.62%61.9%
100%
Maine
4 Electoral Votes
33.06%8.56%5.61%48.5%
100%
Maryland
10 Electoral Votes
53.74%
100%
8%3%32.17%
Massachusetts
11 Electoral Votes
48.79%
100%
6%4%32.81%
Michigan
16 Electoral Votes
39.31%9.96%2.1%46.82%
96.2%
Minnesota
10 Electoral Votes
39.23%7.64%1.27%45.63%
99.81%
Mississippi
6 Electoral Votes
33%4%0%57%
100%
Missouri
10 Electoral Votes
33.03%6%3%47.63%
99.96%
Montana
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Nebraska
5 Electoral Votes
26.71%9.2%0.59%59.05%
100%
Nevada
6 Electoral Votes
41.51%8.2%1.52%44.2%
82.78%
New Hampshire
4 Electoral Votes
35.59%6.55%1.29%43.15%
90.99%
New Jersey
14 Electoral Votes
43.02%7.37%0.85%46.21%
76.31%
New Mexico
5 Electoral Votes
37.01%
74.59%
20.25%2.5%34.49%
New York
29 Electoral Votes
46.1%
100%
8%4%35.73%
North Carolina
15 Electoral Votes
38.63%6.15%2.48%47.37%
95.91%
North Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
26%8%1%53%
100%
Ohio
18 Electoral Votes
37.39%6.7%1.39%47.94%
96.82%
Oklahoma
7 Electoral Votes
25.6%56.9%
100%
Oregon
7 Electoral Votes
39.53%
92.83%
9%3%34.51%
Pennsylvania
20 Electoral Votes
41.62%5.65%2.36%44.53%
68.99%
Rhode Island
4 Electoral Votes
42.29%
100%
7.53%7.53%40.14%
South Carolina
9 Electoral Votes
31.09%3.33%0.97%58.36%
100%
South Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Tennessee
11 Electoral Votes
32%9%1%47%
100%
Texas
38 Electoral Votes
34.37%5.79%0%1.33%49.51%
100%
Utah
6 Electoral Votes
23.14%12.72%7%0%41.32%
100%
Vermont
3 Electoral Votes
39.13%
100%
20.65%6.16%30.8%
Virginia
13 Electoral Votes
37.31%11.56%2%1.49%41.47%
100%
Washington
12 Electoral Votes
42%
100%
13%4%33%
West Virginia
5 Electoral Votes
28.71%12.44%4.31%49.28%
100%
Wisconsin
10 Electoral Votes
38.9%5.08%1.11%42.7%
80.09%
Wyoming
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Total
538 Electoral Votes
1687.66%0.79%2%342
100% >270
National Methodology & Explanation

Our objective is to assess the accuracy of polling, not to predict the outcome of the election. The values depicted above intend to represent an aggregate view of state-level public polling. Our values can be thought of as the polling implied outcome; if polling is correct, the election's outcome should match our values.

Each state's outcome is treated as an independent event as is each candidate's percentage. In reality this is not the case. Outcomes are most certainly correlated based upon empirical information like geography and demographics. Our view, which is consistent with letting polling tell the story, is that any such correlation should be observable and expressed through polling.

Candidate totals are calculated using a quadratic local regression with an alpha of 80%; if too few polls are available a least-squares regression is used. The calculated value for each candidate’s regression, along with the variance, is used as input to calculate the probability that a given candidate's total will be greatest. A standard distribution is used to determine the likelihood of victory in a given state. Once each state's probability is known, a 51-dimension cartesian product is generated to assess the likelihood of receiving 270 or more electoral votes.

More thorough information containing technical details and our data collection criteria is available in our methodology series.

Authentication Required...

Create an Account

Entering an email will eventually grant you the ability to create articles; this feature is coming soon. You may also verify your account later.