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2016 Presidential Polling

Incumbent: Barack Obama (D) | 5 candidates | Election on November 8, 20161060 polls

October 28, 2016 at 5:45:17 PM CT HowWillAmericaVote.com Hillary Clinton (D) 331Donald Trump (R) 204 Alabama Donald Trump53%Hillary Clinton31%Gary Johnson8%Jill Stein2% 9 Electoral Votes Alaska Donald Trump37%Hillary Clinton33.19%Gary Johnson9.39%Jill Stein1.95% 3 Electoral Votes Arizona Hillary Clinton42.19%Donald Trump41.74%Gary Johnson7.28%Jill Stein0.54% 11 Electoral Votes Arkansas Donald Trump56.96%Hillary Clinton31.5%Gary Johnson2.85%Jill Stein0.5% 6 Electoral Votes California Hillary Clinton56.49%Donald Trump33.12%Gary Johnson2.65%Jill Stein1.8% 55 Electoral Votes Colorado Hillary Clinton44.98%Donald Trump38.26%Gary Johnson7.23%Jill Stein2.93% 9 Electoral Votes Connecticut Hillary Clinton47.1%Donald Trump33.93%Gary Johnson8.8%Jill Stein3.6% 7 Electoral Votes Delaware Hillary Clinton51%Donald Trump30%Gary Johnson7%Jill Stein2% 3 Electoral Votes District of Columbia No Data 3 EVs Florida Hillary Clinton44.75%Donald Trump42.96%Gary Johnson4.07%Jill Stein2.06%Evan McMullin1% 29 Electoral Votes Georgia Donald Trump45.68%Hillary Clinton40.34%Gary Johnson6.21%Jill Stein0.91% 16 Electoral Votes Hawaii Hillary Clinton51%Donald Trump25%Gary Johnson7%Jill Stein7% 4 Electoral Votes Idaho Donald Trump40%Hillary Clinton30.02%Gary Johnson10.06%Jill Stein3.05% 4 Electoral Votes Illinois Hillary Clinton50.52%Donald Trump31.85%Gary Johnson3.74%Jill Stein1.53% 20 Electoral Votes Indiana Donald Trump42.92%Hillary Clinton38.21%Gary Johnson11%Jill Stein5% 11 Electoral Votes Iowa Donald Trump44%Hillary Clinton38.88%Gary Johnson6.11%Jill Stein1.99% 6 Electoral Votes Kansas Donald Trump47.19%Hillary Clinton35.05%Gary Johnson9.12%Jill Stein1.85% 6 Electoral Votes Kentucky Donald Trump35.71%Hillary Clinton24.22%Gary Johnson7.4%Jill Stein3.2% 8 Electoral Votes Louisiana Donald Trump52.55%Hillary Clinton33.48%Gary Johnson6.4%Jill Stein0% 8 Electoral Votes Maine Hillary Clinton43.74%Donald Trump36.48%Gary Johnson8.98%Jill Stein2.9% 4 Electoral Votes Maryland Hillary Clinton62.36%Donald Trump26.41%Gary Johnson4%Jill Stein2% 10 Electoral Votes Massachusetts Hillary Clinton55.31%Donald Trump27.94%Gary Johnson7%Jill Stein3.98% 11 Electoral Votes Michigan Hillary Clinton45.76%Donald Trump39.69%Gary Johnson9.18%Jill Stein2.48% 16 Electoral Votes Minnesota Hillary Clinton44.78%Donald Trump41.71%Gary Johnson4%Jill Stein2% 10 Electoral Votes Mississippi Donald Trump46%Hillary Clinton43%Gary Johnson4%Jill Stein2% 6 Electoral Votes Missouri Donald Trump48%Hillary Clinton37.86%Gary Johnson4.05%Jill Stein2.69% 10 Electoral Votes Montana Donald Trump44%Hillary Clinton31%Gary Johnson14%Jill Stein5% 3 Electoral Votes Nebraska Donald Trump55.71%Hillary Clinton29.29%Gary Johnson7.29%Jill Stein1.14% 5 Electoral Votes Nevada Hillary Clinton43.54%Donald Trump41.97%Gary Johnson7.01%Jill Stein4.37% 6 Electoral Votes New Hampshire Hillary Clinton44.04%Donald Trump37.42%Gary Johnson6.91%Jill Stein2.09% 4 Electoral Votes New Jersey Hillary Clinton46.76%Donald Trump41.1%Gary Johnson5.13%Jill Stein2% 14 Electoral Votes New Mexico Hillary Clinton42.52%Donald Trump31.16%Gary Johnson17.54%Jill Stein1.77% 5 Electoral Votes New York Hillary Clinton51.8%Donald Trump31.04%Gary Johnson7.99%Jill Stein3.06% 29 Electoral Votes North Carolina Hillary Clinton44.03%Donald Trump42.26%Gary Johnson6.87%Jill Stein1.09% 15 Electoral Votes North Dakota Donald Trump43%Hillary Clinton32%Gary Johnson8%Jill Stein1% 3 Electoral Votes Ohio Donald Trump43.19%Hillary Clinton42.4%Gary Johnson4.78%Jill Stein1.24% 18 Electoral Votes Oklahoma Donald Trump50.9%Hillary Clinton35.6%Jill Stein7%Gary Johnson6% 7 Electoral Votes Oregon Hillary Clinton46.07%Donald Trump35.9%Gary Johnson4%Jill Stein2% 7 Electoral Votes Pennsylvania Hillary Clinton46.08%Donald Trump39.87%Gary Johnson3.46%Jill Stein1.76% 20 Electoral Votes Rhode Island Hillary Clinton51.83%Donald Trump32.33%Gary Johnson5.33%Jill Stein4.83% 4 Electoral Votes South Carolina Donald Trump43.7%Hillary Clinton37.22%Gary Johnson5.89%Jill Stein3% 9 Electoral Votes South Dakota Donald Trump43%Hillary Clinton29%Gary Johnson19%Jill Stein3% 3 Electoral Votes Tennessee Donald Trump46.93%Hillary Clinton34.31%Gary Johnson5.5%Jill Stein2% 11 Electoral Votes Texas Donald Trump44.4%Hillary Clinton36.92%Gary Johnson4.08%Jill Stein0.89%Evan McMullin0% 38 Electoral Votes Utah Donald Trump35.75%Hillary Clinton24.86%Gary Johnson13.65%Evan McMullin12%Jill Stein1.17% 6 Electoral Votes Vermont Hillary Clinton46.4%Donald Trump25.19%Gary Johnson12.49%Jill Stein7.33% 3 Electoral Votes Virginia Hillary Clinton43.54%Donald Trump36.46%Gary Johnson8.36%Jill Stein1.08%Evan McMullin1% 13 Electoral Votes Washington Hillary Clinton46.88%Donald Trump33.5%Gary Johnson8.82%Jill Stein4.16% 12 Electoral Votes West Virginia Donald Trump57.11%Hillary Clinton29.39%Gary Johnson4%Jill Stein4% 5 Electoral Votes Wisconsin Hillary Clinton44.1%Donald Trump39.09%Gary Johnson3.38%Jill Stein0.75% 10 Electoral Votes Wyoming Donald Trump54%Hillary Clinton19%Gary Johnson10%Jill Stein2% 3 Electoral Votes
Clinton (D)Johnson (L)McMullin (I)Stein (G)Trump (R)
Alabama
9 Electoral Votes
31%8%2%53%
100%
Alaska
3 Electoral Votes
33.19%9.39%1.95%37%
0%
Arizona
11 Electoral Votes
42.19%
55.18%
7.28%0.54%41.74%
Arkansas
6 Electoral Votes
31.5%2.85%0.5%56.96%
100%
California
55 Electoral Votes
56.49%
100%
2.65%1.8%33.12%
Colorado
9 Electoral Votes
44.98%
93.52%
7.23%2.93%38.26%
Connecticut
7 Electoral Votes
47.1%
100%
8.8%3.6%33.93%
Delaware
3 Electoral Votes
51%
100%
7%2%30%
District of Columbia
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Florida
29 Electoral Votes
44.75%
66.57%
4.07%1%2.06%42.96%
Georgia
16 Electoral Votes
40.34%6.21%0.91%45.68%
95.84%
Hawaii
4 Electoral Votes
51%
100%
7%7%25%
Idaho
4 Electoral Votes
30.02%10.06%3.05%40%
78.74%
Illinois
20 Electoral Votes
50.52%
100%
3.74%1.53%31.85%
Indiana
11 Electoral Votes
38.21%11%5%42.92%
100%
Iowa
6 Electoral Votes
38.88%6.11%1.99%44%
91.86%
Kansas
6 Electoral Votes
35.05%9.12%1.85%47.19%
100%
Kentucky
8 Electoral Votes
24.22%7.4%3.2%35.71%
99.87%
Louisiana
8 Electoral Votes
33.48%6.4%0%52.55%
100%
Maine
4 Electoral Votes
43.74%
99.9%
8.98%2.9%36.48%
Maryland
10 Electoral Votes
62.36%
100%
4%2%26.41%
Massachusetts
11 Electoral Votes
55.31%
100%
7%3.98%27.94%
Michigan
16 Electoral Votes
45.76%
88.71%
9.18%2.48%39.69%
Minnesota
10 Electoral Votes
44.78%
100%
4%2%41.71%
Mississippi
6 Electoral Votes
43%4%2%46%
100%
Missouri
10 Electoral Votes
37.86%4.05%2.69%48%
100%
Montana
3 Electoral Votes
31%14%5%44%
100%
Nebraska
5 Electoral Votes
29.29%7.29%1.14%55.71%
100%
Nevada
6 Electoral Votes
43.54%
74.04%
7.01%4.37%41.97%
New Hampshire
4 Electoral Votes
44.04%
90.7%
6.91%2.09%37.42%
New Jersey
14 Electoral Votes
46.76%
100%
5.13%2%41.1%
New Mexico
5 Electoral Votes
42.52%
99.99%
17.54%1.77%31.16%
New York
29 Electoral Votes
51.8%
100%
7.99%3.06%31.04%
North Carolina
15 Electoral Votes
44.03%
66.25%
6.87%1.09%42.26%
North Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
32%8%1%43%
100%
Ohio
18 Electoral Votes
42.4%4.78%1.24%43.19%
57.95%
Oklahoma
7 Electoral Votes
35.6%6%7%50.9%
100%
Oregon
7 Electoral Votes
46.07%
98.47%
4%2%35.9%
Pennsylvania
20 Electoral Votes
46.08%
91.35%
3.46%1.76%39.87%
Rhode Island
4 Electoral Votes
51.83%
100%
5.33%4.83%32.33%
South Carolina
9 Electoral Votes
37.22%5.89%3%43.7%
99.13%
South Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
29%19%3%43%
100%
Tennessee
11 Electoral Votes
34.31%5.5%2%46.93%
100%
Texas
38 Electoral Votes
36.92%4.08%0%0.89%44.4%
99.97%
Utah
6 Electoral Votes
24.86%13.65%12%1.17%35.75%
99.79%
Vermont
3 Electoral Votes
46.4%
100%
12.49%7.33%25.19%
Virginia
13 Electoral Votes
43.54%
95.66%
8.36%1%1.08%36.46%
Washington
12 Electoral Votes
46.88%
100%
8.82%4.16%33.5%
West Virginia
5 Electoral Votes
29.39%4%4%57.11%
100%
Wisconsin
10 Electoral Votes
44.1%
95.72%
3.38%0.75%39.09%
Wyoming
3 Electoral Votes
19%10%2%54%
100%
Total
538 Electoral Votes
331
100% >270
6.05%1.32%2.19%204
National Methodology & Explanation

Our objective is to assess the accuracy of polling, not to predict the outcome of the election. The values depicted above intend to represent an aggregate view of state-level public polling. Our values can be thought of as the polling implied outcome; if polling is correct, the election's outcome should match our values.

Each state's outcome is treated as an independent event as is each candidate's percentage. In reality this is not the case. Outcomes are most certainly correlated based upon empirical information like geography and demographics. Our view, which is consistent with letting polling tell the story, is that any such correlation should be observable and expressed through polling.

Candidate totals are calculated using a quadratic local regression with an alpha of 80%; if too few polls are available a least-squares regression is used. The calculated value for each candidate’s regression, along with the variance, is used as input to calculate the probability that a given candidate's total will be greatest. A standard distribution is used to determine the likelihood of victory in a given state. Once each state's probability is known, a 51-dimension cartesian product is generated to assess the likelihood of receiving 270 or more electoral votes.

More thorough information containing technical details and our data collection criteria is available in our methodology series.

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