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Final NV Caucus Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | February 20, 2016 at 12:45:57 PM CT 0 Comments

There were just 8 polls released covering the Democratic Nevada Caucus, so our projections are a little bare. There was just one poll that published male crosstabs and three that published female:

Nevada Democratic Presidential CaucusSanders (D)Clinton (D)
Females [Poly, Linear]40.24%51.26%

Due to the lack of the gender data, we aren't able to re-weight to match the 2008 entrance polling ratio of 41 males to 59 females [1]. An additional consideration is the allocation of undecideds which was touched on briefly in New Hampshire. The general pattern has been to allocate all of the undecideds in our projections to Bernie; it worked in Iowa, and New Hampshire. If we do the same in Nevada, Bernie wins about 51% to 49%.

The above projections are based on a comparatively small pool of polls, from marginally performing pollsters. Gravis Marketing did about average in our ranking of New Hampshire polling. ORC International had the 9th lowest gender expectation deviation (out of 14) pollsters from the Iowa Caucus when using delegate totals; we haven't published Iowa rankings because our intent is to find a usable proxy for the popular vote. As best I can tell, this is the first TPC Research poll to be released.

And finally, if you attend the Nevada Caucus today, report your precinct result!


Retrieved on February 20, 2016 at 12:49:57 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: nvcaucus

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