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Final CT, DE, MD, PA, RI Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | April 26, 2016 at 5:31:44 PM CT 0 Comments

Based on polling, Bernie should lose 4 of the 5 states voting today with Rhode Island a toss-up. We'll cover Pennsylvania first because there were enough polls conducted for statistical significance:

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)

The lone projected victory for Bernie comes in the Hispanic demographic; I wouldn't give too much weight to that outcome given it is from a single poll with 19 subjects. The remaining demographics look similar to the New York polling. Based on New York exit polling [1], Bernie actually tied among whites and males 50-50. The polling currently implies Bernie loses among both demographics in Pennsylvania.

There are 4 other states voting today, but there really isn't enough polling in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island to draw any mathematical conclusions. A basic interpretation of polling implies that the outcome in Rhode Island will have a close margin with no clear favorite, followed by Connecticut with a close margin but an edge to Hillary.

Connecticut Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)

Delaware Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)

Maryland Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)

Rhode Island Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)

Delaware was polled once and appears to be safely in the Clinton column, but it has just one congressional district and 21 pledged delegates [2]. Both candidates are guaranteed 8 delegates minimum based on how the groups are divided. The margin thresholds are as follows in Delaware; a margin greater than 50% will yield a +1 delegate margin, >56.25% is a +3 margin, >68.75%: +5 and finally >70%:+7.

The remaining states each have multiple congressional districts and more complex delegate allocation possibilities. We did take the time to model the Pennsylvania selection plan, but its looking as though there will not be data reported at the congressional district level which inhibits our realtime assignment of delegates. Here is the empty map; we may be able to fill it in manually as the night progresses.

As each primary is state sponsored, we've compiled a list of government results; Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Maryland may or may not have results at the link; polls are still closed so its unclear.

Updated on April 26, 2016 at 5:48:26 PM CT


Retrieved on April 26, 2016 at 5:34:19 PM CT | Revision: 1


Retrieved on April 26, 2016 at 5:34:36 PM CT | Revision: 1

TAGS: riprimary, deprimary, paprimary, ctprimary, mdprimary

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