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Final FL, IL, MO, NC, OH Polling Projections

By TJHalva | 1 point | March 15, 2016 at 5:37:48 PM CT 0 Comments

Our polling projections tonight are largely an academic exercise in completeness as we discussed in our morning article; our expectation is that polling will be wholly inaccurate. Four of the five states had a sufficient number of polls to make projections; Missouri is the fifth and is not included below because just two polls were conducted in the state.

Florida Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)
All32.28%59.90%
Females29.19%62.04%
Males36.95%56.83%
Whites35.57%57.01%
Blacks16.76%74.89%

There were just 7 polls from Illinois and they were sparsely conducted:

Illinois Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)
All [Poly, Linear]40.08%53.67%

North Carolina was heavily polled and Bernie consistently trailed in every demographic below; he tied with males in a single poll and lead whites in two polls. This is largely a southern state so despite the horrible polling, he's still going to lose.

North Carolina Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)
All35.35%54.89%
Females31.59%58.36%
Males38.45%47.53%
Whites41.43%46.91%
Blacks19.31%69.94%

Nothing changed in Ohio since this morning; our stance remains unchanged.

Ohio Democratic Presidential PrimarySanders (D)Clinton (D)
All41.46%53.79%
Females36.72%59.08%
Males48.38%49.18%
Blacks [Poly, Linear]22.43%68.11%
Whites [Poly, Linear]41.03%54.09%

There will be 697 pledged delegates allocated as a result of today's primary elections.

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TAGS: florida, illinois, missour, north, carolina, ohio, ohprimary, ncprimary, moprimary, flprimary, ilprimary

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