Here are the final calculations based on the poll data I currently have collected. I've broken the final "projections" into two groups; those matchups in which I have complete poll data, and those which I don't. I use the term "projection" very loosely as the values presented below simply represent the final regression estimate for the default parameters of the local regression technique. They probably don't scale quite correctly when there is sparse data in some of the states with fewer polls. In any case, I don't think anybody else is making any sort of "projection" based on demographic data.
As sort of a fun aside, if the results below were to hold, Romney would flip Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, but will still lose by 24 electoral votes, 281 to 257.
Complete Data
| Indiana President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 42.26% | 52.66% |
| Republicans | 7.00% | 91.00% |
| Indiana Senate | Joe Donnelly (D) | Richard Mourdock (R) | Andy Horning (L) |
|---|
| All | 45.97% | 42.14% | 5.52% |
| Males | 45.10% | 45.91% | |
| Females | 49.74% | 35.99% | |
| Democrats | 88.14% | | |
| Republicans | 7.00% | 79.95% | |
| Independents | 47.56% | 32.24% | |
| Minnesota President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 50.91% | 44.09% |
| Males | 47.46% | 47.07% |
| Females | 55.45% | 39.91% |
| Democrats | 93.19% | 5.29% |
| Republicans | 5.27% | 93.12% |
| Independents | 43.67% | 44.13% |
| Minnesota Senate | Amy Klobuchar (D) | Kurt Bills (R) |
|---|
| All | 61.38% | 30.17% |
| Males | 57.03% | 36.35% |
| Females | 65.83% | 24.58% |
| Democrats | 92.75% | 2.53% |
| Republicans | 22.63% | 68.94% |
| Independents | 61.71% | 26.85% |
| Missouri President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) | Gary Johnson (L) |
|---|
| All | 43.21% | 52.86% | 0.85% |
| Males | 40.22% | 54.93% | |
| Females | 46.54% | 49.91% | |
| Democrats | 93.15% | 5.48% | 0.00% |
| Republicans | 4.27% | 92.92% | 0.00% |
| Independents | 37.53% | 54.11% | 3.99% |
| Missouri Senate | Claire McCaskill (D) | Todd Akin (R) | Jonathan Dine (L) |
|---|
| All | 50.35% | 41.06% | 6.92% |
| Males | 46.86% | 44.76% | 6.75% |
| Females | 52.54% | 37.34% | 6.73% |
| Democrats | 93.53% | 4.19% | 2.59% |
| Republicans | 11.29% | 75.61% | 10.50% |
| Independents | 48.93% | 39.49% | 6.72% |
| Nebraska Senate | Bob Kerrey (D) | Deb Fischer (R) |
|---|
| All | 43.78% | 51.06% |
| Independents | 3.00% | 48.00% |
| North Dakota Senate | Heidi Heitkamp (D) | Rick Berg (R) |
|---|
| All | 46.40% | 47.19% |
| Males | 38.00% | 57.00% |
| Females | 52.00% | 37.00% |
| Democrats | 96.00% | 2.03% |
| Republicans | 7.03% | 88.00% |
| Independents | 49.64% | 32.54% |
| Wisconsin President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 49.99% | 45.55% |
| Males | 45.52% | 49.12% |
| Females | 54.02% | 41.17% |
| Democrats | 91.30% | 7.48% |
| Republicans | 5.35% | 93.11% |
| Independents | 46.10% | 40.56% |
| Wisconsin Senate | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Tommy Thompson (R) |
|---|
| All | 47.56% | 46.39% |
| Males | 45.20% | 50.70% |
| Females | 52.45% | 39.91% |
| Democrats | 86.37% | 7.50% |
| Republicans | 6.14% | 90.10% |
| Independents | 44.75% | 41.33% |
Partial Data
| Colorado President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 48.38% | 48.43% |
| Democrats | 94.00% | 5.00% |
| Republicans | 8.00% | 89.00% |
| Independents | 50.20% | 44.08% |
| Florida President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 47.60% | 50.92% |
| Independents | 52.38% | 42.13% |
| Florida Senate | Bill Nelson (D) | Connie McGillicuddy (R) |
|---|
| All | 48.55% | 44.26% |
| Males | 52.00% | |
| Females | 52.00% | |
| Democrats | 81.41% | |
| Republicans | | 79.90% |
| Independents | 57.81% | 31.41% |
| Montana President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 43.59% | 50.54% |
| Independents | 35.00% | 54.00% |
| Montana Senate | Jon Tester (D) | Denny Rehberg (R) | Dan Cox (L) |
|---|
| All | 47.47% | 45.71% | 5.95% |
| Democrats | 91.00% | 44.00% | |
| Republicans | 9.00% | 1.00% | |
| Independents | 45.00% | 84.00% | |
| Ohio President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 48.74% | 48.01% |
| Independents | 51.23% | 40.74% |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod Brown (D) | Josh Mandel (R) |
|---|
| All | 48.68% | 48.15% |
| Pennsylvania President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 49.56% | 44.72% |
| Males | 44.01% | 47.02% |
| Females | 48.99% | 43.00% |
| Democrats | 81.41% | 11.08% |
| Republicans | 13.71% | 78.89% |
| Independents | 37.20% | 39.63% |
| Virginia President | Barack Obama (D) | Mitt Romney (R) |
|---|
| All | 47.83% | 49.44% |
| Males | 45.00% | 52.00% |
| Females | 56.00% | 40.00% |
| Democrats | 97.00% | 1.00% |
| Republicans | 5.00% | 90.00% |
| Independents | 37.09% | 57.62% |
| Virginia Senate | Tim Kaine (D) | George Allen (R) |
|---|
| All | 48.80% | 49.00% |
| Males | 46.00% | 49.00% |
| Females | 55.00% | 39.00% |
| Democrats | 93.00% | 2.00% |
| Republicans | 7.00% | 90.00% |
| Independents | 51.00% | 42.00% |
Indiana and Kentucky are the first states to close their polls at 5 PM CT. Donnelly (D) should win the Indiana Senate, otherwise nothing unexpected should happen.
Updated on November 9, 2012 at 5:51:38 PM CT