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2016 Presidential Polling Among Democrats

Incumbent: Barack Obama (D) | 5 candidates | Election on November 8, 20161060 polls

November 23, 2016 at 6:06:51 PM CT HowWillAmericaVote.com Hillary Clinton (D) 509Donald Trump (R) 16 Alabama Donald Trump10% 9 Electoral Votes Alaska No Data 3 Electoral Votes Arizona Hillary Clinton87.76%Donald Trump13.77%Gary Johnson3.07%Jill Stein2.4% 11 Electoral Votes Arkansas Hillary Clinton80.67%Donald Trump8.67%Gary Johnson4.67%Jill Stein1.33% 6 Electoral Votes California Hillary Clinton89.57%Donald Trump5.26%Gary Johnson1.71%Jill Stein1.26% 55 Electoral Votes Colorado Hillary Clinton83.17%Donald Trump8.36%Gary Johnson3.27%Jill Stein1.05%Evan McMullin1% 9 Electoral Votes Connecticut Hillary Clinton78.59%Donald Trump9.98%Gary Johnson5.84%Jill Stein3.41% 7 Electoral Votes Delaware Hillary Clinton88%Donald Trump4%Gary Johnson2%Jill Stein0% 3 Electoral Votes District of Columbia No Data 3 EVs Florida Hillary Clinton84.03%Donald Trump10.77%Evan McMullin1%Gary Johnson0.89%Jill Stein0.58% 29 Electoral Votes Georgia Hillary Clinton90.18%Donald Trump6.38%Jill Stein3.09%Gary Johnson0.96% 16 Electoral Votes Hawaii No Data 4 Electoral Votes Idaho Hillary Clinton79.89%Donald Trump12.26%Jill Stein1%Evan McMullin0.97%Gary Johnson0% 4 Electoral Votes Illinois Hillary Clinton78.61%Donald Trump13.97%Gary Johnson1.14%Jill Stein0.82% 20 Electoral Votes Indiana Hillary Clinton83.13%Donald Trump9.92%Gary Johnson1.11% 11 Electoral Votes Iowa Hillary Clinton82.64%Donald Trump10.26%Jill Stein3.13%Gary Johnson2.15%Evan McMullin0% 6 Electoral Votes Kansas Hillary Clinton92.32%Donald Trump5.44%Jill Stein0.76%Gary Johnson0.59% 6 Electoral Votes Kentucky Hillary Clinton68%Donald Trump21%Jill Stein2%Evan McMullin1%Gary Johnson0% 8 Electoral Votes Louisiana Hillary Clinton80.28%Donald Trump21.17%Gary Johnson2.72%Jill Stein1% 8 Electoral Votes Maine Hillary Clinton82.04%Donald Trump12.31%Gary Johnson0.83%Jill Stein0.83% 4 Electoral Votes Maryland Hillary Clinton89.64%Donald Trump5.48%Jill Stein2%Gary Johnson1% 10 Electoral Votes Massachusetts Hillary Clinton83.14%Donald Trump4.89%Jill Stein3.3%Gary Johnson2.44% 11 Electoral Votes Michigan Hillary Clinton84.45%Donald Trump24.28%Jill Stein2.48%Gary Johnson2.2% 16 Electoral Votes Minnesota Hillary Clinton89.87%Donald Trump3.65%Gary Johnson2.35%Jill Stein0.94% 10 Electoral Votes Mississippi Hillary Clinton89%Donald Trump5%Gary Johnson0%Jill Stein0% 6 Electoral Votes Missouri Hillary Clinton84.55%Donald Trump11.16%Jill Stein2.78%Gary Johnson2.32% 10 Electoral Votes Montana Hillary Clinton77%Gary Johnson5%Jill Stein4%Donald Trump2% 3 Electoral Votes Nebraska Hillary Clinton72.08%Donald Trump17.26%Gary Johnson4.06%Jill Stein1.02% 5 Electoral Votes Nevada Hillary Clinton81.79%Donald Trump12.97%Gary Johnson1.43%Jill Stein0.68% 6 Electoral Votes New Hampshire Hillary Clinton85.86%Donald Trump7.7%Gary Johnson1.53%Jill Stein0.4% 4 Electoral Votes New Jersey Hillary Clinton75.45%Donald Trump16.82%Gary Johnson2.87%Jill Stein2.35% 14 Electoral Votes New Mexico Hillary Clinton83.49%Donald Trump19.74%Gary Johnson7.8%Jill Stein0.46% 5 Electoral Votes New York Hillary Clinton79.6%Donald Trump11.01%Jill Stein1.95%Gary Johnson1.73% 29 Electoral Votes North Carolina Hillary Clinton84.8%Donald Trump11.76%Jill Stein1.06%Gary Johnson0.3% 15 Electoral Votes North Dakota Hillary Clinton84%Donald Trump5%Gary Johnson3%Jill Stein1% 3 Electoral Votes Ohio Hillary Clinton72.08%Donald Trump23.03%Gary Johnson2.45%Jill Stein1.55% 18 Electoral Votes Oklahoma Donald Trump19.5% 7 Electoral Votes Oregon Hillary Clinton82.26%Jill Stein7.51%Donald Trump5.24%Gary Johnson2.07% 7 Electoral Votes Pennsylvania Hillary Clinton83.45%Donald Trump13.74%Gary Johnson1.13%Jill Stein1.03% 20 Electoral Votes Rhode Island Hillary Clinton82.33%Donald Trump8.03%Jill Stein2.81%Gary Johnson2.41% 4 Electoral Votes South Carolina Hillary Clinton84%Donald Trump5%Jill Stein2%Gary Johnson1% 9 Electoral Votes South Dakota Hillary Clinton75%Donald Trump15%Gary Johnson4% 3 Electoral Votes Tennessee Hillary Clinton89.66%Donald Trump6.9%Gary Johnson1.38%Jill Stein0.69% 11 Electoral Votes Texas Hillary Clinton82.8%Donald Trump7.99%Jill Stein4.55%Gary Johnson1.63%Evan McMullin0% 38 Electoral Votes Utah Hillary Clinton82.54%Donald Trump6.27%Gary Johnson3.48%Evan McMullin3.13%Jill Stein1.24% 6 Electoral Votes Vermont Hillary Clinton77.17%Jill Stein4.83%Donald Trump2.72%Gary Johnson2.72% 3 Electoral Votes Virginia Hillary Clinton87.29%Donald Trump8.08%Jill Stein0.9%Gary Johnson0.87%Evan McMullin0.48% 13 Electoral Votes Washington Hillary Clinton92.49%Donald Trump3.53%Gary Johnson1.59%Jill Stein1.45% 12 Electoral Votes West Virginia Hillary Clinton53.59%Donald Trump27.27%Gary Johnson8.61%Jill Stein4.31% 5 Electoral Votes Wisconsin Hillary Clinton87.91%Donald Trump7.52%Gary Johnson1.81%Jill Stein0.77% 10 Electoral Votes Wyoming No Data 3 Electoral Votes
Clinton (D)Johnson (L)McMullin (I)Stein (G)Trump (R)
Alabama
9 Electoral Votes
10%
100%
Alaska
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Arizona
11 Electoral Votes
87.76%
99.99%
3.07%2.4%13.77%
Arkansas
6 Electoral Votes
80.67%
100%
4.67%1.33%8.67%
California
55 Electoral Votes
89.57%
100%
1.71%1.26%5.26%
Colorado
9 Electoral Votes
83.17%
100%
3.27%1%1.05%8.36%
Connecticut
7 Electoral Votes
78.59%
100%
5.84%3.41%9.98%
Delaware
3 Electoral Votes
88%
100%
2%0%4%
District of Columbia
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Florida
29 Electoral Votes
84.03%
100%
0.89%1%0.58%10.77%
Georgia
16 Electoral Votes
90.18%
100%
0.96%3.09%6.38%
Hawaii
4 Electoral Votes
No Data
Idaho
4 Electoral Votes
79.89%
100%
0%0.97%1%12.26%
Illinois
20 Electoral Votes
78.61%
100%
1.14%0.82%13.97%
Indiana
11 Electoral Votes
83.13%
100%
1.11%9.92%
Iowa
6 Electoral Votes
82.64%
100%
2.15%0%3.13%10.26%
Kansas
6 Electoral Votes
92.32%
100%
0.59%0.76%5.44%
Kentucky
8 Electoral Votes
68%
100%
0%1%2%21%
Louisiana
8 Electoral Votes
80.28%
100%
2.72%1%21.17%
Maine
4 Electoral Votes
82.04%
100%
0.83%0.83%12.31%
Maryland
10 Electoral Votes
89.64%
100%
1%2%5.48%
Massachusetts
11 Electoral Votes
83.14%
100%
2.44%3.3%4.89%
Michigan
16 Electoral Votes
84.45%
99.99%
2.2%2.48%24.28%
Minnesota
10 Electoral Votes
89.87%
100%
2.35%0.94%3.65%
Mississippi
6 Electoral Votes
89%
100%
0%0%5%
Missouri
10 Electoral Votes
84.55%
100%
2.32%2.78%11.16%
Montana
3 Electoral Votes
77%
100%
5%4%2%
Nebraska
5 Electoral Votes
72.08%
100%
4.06%1.02%17.26%
Nevada
6 Electoral Votes
81.79%
100%
1.43%0.68%12.97%
New Hampshire
4 Electoral Votes
85.86%
97.04%
1.53%0.4%7.7%
New Jersey
14 Electoral Votes
75.45%
99.87%
2.87%2.35%16.82%
New Mexico
5 Electoral Votes
83.49%
100%
7.8%0.46%19.74%
New York
29 Electoral Votes
79.6%
100%
1.73%1.95%11.01%
North Carolina
15 Electoral Votes
84.8%
99.97%
0.3%1.06%11.76%
North Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
84%
100%
3%1%5%
Ohio
18 Electoral Votes
72.08%
99.94%
2.45%1.55%23.03%
Oklahoma
7 Electoral Votes
19.5%
100%
Oregon
7 Electoral Votes
82.26%
100%
2.07%7.51%5.24%
Pennsylvania
20 Electoral Votes
83.45%
97.91%
1.13%1.03%13.74%
Rhode Island
4 Electoral Votes
82.33%
100%
2.41%2.81%8.03%
South Carolina
9 Electoral Votes
84%
100%
1%2%5%
South Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
75%
100%
4%15%
Tennessee
11 Electoral Votes
89.66%
100%
1.38%0.69%6.9%
Texas
38 Electoral Votes
82.8%
100%
1.63%0%4.55%7.99%
Utah
6 Electoral Votes
82.54%
100%
3.48%3.13%1.24%6.27%
Vermont
3 Electoral Votes
77.17%
100%
2.72%4.83%2.72%
Virginia
13 Electoral Votes
87.29%
100%
0.87%0.48%0.9%8.08%
Washington
12 Electoral Votes
92.49%
100%
1.59%1.45%3.53%
West Virginia
5 Electoral Votes
53.59%
100%
8.61%4.31%27.27%
Wisconsin
10 Electoral Votes
87.91%
100%
1.81%0.77%7.52%
Wyoming
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Total
538 Electoral Votes
509
100% >270
1.91%0.66%1.88%16
National Methodology & Explanation

Our objective is to assess the accuracy of polling, not to predict the outcome of the election. The values depicted above intend to represent an aggregate view of state-level public polling. Our values can be thought of as the polling implied outcome; if polling is correct, the election's outcome should match our values.

Each state's outcome is treated as an independent event as is each candidate's percentage. In reality this is not the case. Outcomes are most certainly correlated based upon empirical information like geography and demographics. Our view, which is consistent with letting polling tell the story, is that any such correlation should be observable and expressed through polling.

Candidate totals are calculated using a quadratic local regression with an alpha of 80%; if too few polls are available a least-squares regression is used. The calculated value for each candidate’s regression, along with the variance, is used as input to calculate the probability that a given candidate's total will be greatest. A standard distribution is used to determine the likelihood of victory in a given state. Once each state's probability is known, a 51-dimension cartesian product is generated to assess the likelihood of receiving 270 or more electoral votes.

More thorough information containing technical details and our data collection criteria is available in our methodology series.

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