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2016 Presidential Polling Among Females

Incumbent: Barack Obama (D) | 5 candidates | Election on November 8, 20161060 polls

November 23, 2016 at 6:06:51 PM CT HowWillAmericaVote.com Hillary Clinton (D) 381Donald Trump (R) 135 Alabama No Data 9 Electoral Votes Alaska No Data 3 Electoral Votes Arizona Hillary Clinton48.74%Donald Trump42.84%Gary Johnson4.85%Jill Stein1.42% 11 Electoral Votes Arkansas Donald Trump51.92%Hillary Clinton32.37%Jill Stein4.49%Gary Johnson4.17% 6 Electoral Votes California Hillary Clinton59.63%Donald Trump29.53%Gary Johnson3.77%Jill Stein2.37% 55 Electoral Votes Colorado Hillary Clinton48.44%Donald Trump38.56%Gary Johnson3.77%Jill Stein2.08%Evan McMullin0% 9 Electoral Votes Connecticut Hillary Clinton57.97%Donald Trump29.27%Gary Johnson5.25%Jill Stein4.5% 7 Electoral Votes Delaware Hillary Clinton59%Donald Trump26%Gary Johnson4%Jill Stein2% 3 Electoral Votes District of Columbia No Data 3 EVs Florida Hillary Clinton48.37%Donald Trump44.76%Evan McMullin2%Gary Johnson1.94%Jill Stein0.72% 29 Electoral Votes Georgia Hillary Clinton48.93%Donald Trump45.41%Gary Johnson2.5%Jill Stein1.29% 16 Electoral Votes Hawaii No Data 4 Electoral Votes Idaho Donald Trump47.7%Hillary Clinton25.78%Evan McMullin9.94%Gary Johnson2.76% 4 Electoral Votes Illinois Hillary Clinton59.22%Donald Trump30.55%Gary Johnson0.67%Jill Stein0.53% 20 Electoral Votes Indiana Hillary Clinton43.57%Donald Trump43.36%Gary Johnson6.52% 11 Electoral Votes Iowa Hillary Clinton46.06%Donald Trump40.84%Gary Johnson2.76%Jill Stein2.68%Evan McMullin2% 6 Electoral Votes Kansas Donald Trump47.86%Hillary Clinton35.76%Gary Johnson7.58%Jill Stein1.26% 6 Electoral Votes Kentucky Donald Trump49.86%Hillary Clinton40.71%Gary Johnson1%Jill Stein1%Evan McMullin1% 8 Electoral Votes Louisiana Donald Trump45.77%Hillary Clinton40.98%Gary Johnson4.51%Jill Stein2% 8 Electoral Votes Maine Hillary Clinton51.96%Donald Trump34.37%Gary Johnson4.27%Jill Stein2.01% 4 Electoral Votes Maryland Hillary Clinton69.2%Donald Trump22.31%Gary Johnson2%Jill Stein1% 10 Electoral Votes Massachusetts Hillary Clinton65.46%Donald Trump19.55%Gary Johnson6.09%Jill Stein3.79% 11 Electoral Votes Michigan Hillary Clinton49.65%Donald Trump43.7%Gary Johnson3.76%Jill Stein2.35% 16 Electoral Votes Minnesota Hillary Clinton55.23%Donald Trump33.13%Gary Johnson5.49%Jill Stein0.87% 10 Electoral Votes Mississippi Donald Trump47%Hillary Clinton44%Gary Johnson2%Jill Stein0% 6 Electoral Votes Missouri Donald Trump50.27%Hillary Clinton39.2%Gary Johnson4.19%Jill Stein3.14% 10 Electoral Votes Montana Donald Trump37%Hillary Clinton33%Gary Johnson6%Jill Stein2% 3 Electoral Votes Nebraska Donald Trump52.62%Hillary Clinton31.68%Gary Johnson5.51%Jill Stein1.65% 5 Electoral Votes Nevada Hillary Clinton46.05%Donald Trump44.06%Gary Johnson2.2%Jill Stein1.47% 6 Electoral Votes New Hampshire Hillary Clinton51.97%Donald Trump35.86%Gary Johnson3.7%Jill Stein0.62% 4 Electoral Votes New Jersey Hillary Clinton49.21%Donald Trump40.26%Gary Johnson3.58%Jill Stein2.91% 14 Electoral Votes New Mexico Hillary Clinton50.26%Donald Trump36.09%Gary Johnson6.73%Jill Stein0.96% 5 Electoral Votes New York Hillary Clinton55.02%Donald Trump32.36%Gary Johnson3.62%Jill Stein3.42% 29 Electoral Votes North Carolina Hillary Clinton52.14%Donald Trump42.27%Gary Johnson1.66%Jill Stein0.3% 15 Electoral Votes North Dakota Hillary Clinton37%Donald Trump34%Gary Johnson7%Jill Stein2% 3 Electoral Votes Ohio Hillary Clinton52.39%Donald Trump38.6%Gary Johnson3.67%Jill Stein2.61% 18 Electoral Votes Oklahoma Donald Trump49.8%Hillary Clinton31.2% 7 Electoral Votes Oregon Hillary Clinton52.46%Donald Trump32.13%Jill Stein5.36%Gary Johnson3.16% 7 Electoral Votes Pennsylvania Hillary Clinton50.88%Donald Trump40.41%Gary Johnson1.97%Jill Stein1.43% 20 Electoral Votes Rhode Island Hillary Clinton60.12%Donald Trump25.55%Gary Johnson3.43%Jill Stein2.8% 4 Electoral Votes South Carolina Donald Trump48.77%Hillary Clinton44.52%Gary Johnson3.46%Jill Stein0.41% 9 Electoral Votes South Dakota Donald Trump46%Hillary Clinton39%Gary Johnson5% 3 Electoral Votes Tennessee Donald Trump41.22%Hillary Clinton37.63%Gary Johnson5.38%Jill Stein1.79% 11 Electoral Votes Texas Donald Trump47.38%Hillary Clinton41.2%Gary Johnson5.64%Jill Stein1.44%Evan McMullin1% 38 Electoral Votes Utah Donald Trump37.06%Hillary Clinton29.54%Evan McMullin24.12%Gary Johnson3.8%Jill Stein1.46% 6 Electoral Votes Vermont Hillary Clinton61.19%Donald Trump20.86%Gary Johnson3%Jill Stein1% 3 Electoral Votes Virginia Hillary Clinton50.14%Donald Trump42.22%Gary Johnson1.72%Jill Stein1.28%Evan McMullin0.77% 13 Electoral Votes Washington Hillary Clinton52.26%Donald Trump34.04%Gary Johnson3.79%Jill Stein1.86% 12 Electoral Votes West Virginia Donald Trump49.12%Hillary Clinton32.3%Gary Johnson8.41%Jill Stein3.98% 5 Electoral Votes Wisconsin Hillary Clinton48.19%Donald Trump38.99%Gary Johnson4.27%Jill Stein2.1% 10 Electoral Votes Wyoming No Data 3 Electoral Votes
Clinton (D)Johnson (L)McMullin (I)Stein (G)Trump (R)
Alabama
9 Electoral Votes
No Data
Alaska
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Arizona
11 Electoral Votes
48.74%
86.74%
4.85%1.42%42.84%
Arkansas
6 Electoral Votes
32.37%4.17%4.49%51.92%
100%
California
55 Electoral Votes
59.63%
100%
3.77%2.37%29.53%
Colorado
9 Electoral Votes
48.44%
97.31%
3.77%0%2.08%38.56%
Connecticut
7 Electoral Votes
57.97%
100%
5.25%4.5%29.27%
Delaware
3 Electoral Votes
59%
100%
4%2%26%
District of Columbia
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Florida
29 Electoral Votes
48.37%
100%
1.94%2%0.72%44.76%
Georgia
16 Electoral Votes
48.93%
84.11%
2.5%1.29%45.41%
Hawaii
4 Electoral Votes
No Data
Idaho
4 Electoral Votes
25.78%2.76%9.94%47.7%
100%
Illinois
20 Electoral Votes
59.22%
100%
0.67%0.53%30.55%
Indiana
11 Electoral Votes
43.57%
54.04%
6.52%43.36%
Iowa
6 Electoral Votes
46.06%
100%
2.76%2%2.68%40.84%
Kansas
6 Electoral Votes
35.76%7.58%1.26%47.86%
100%
Kentucky
8 Electoral Votes
40.71%1%1%1%49.86%
98.67%
Louisiana
8 Electoral Votes
40.98%4.51%2%45.77%
100%
Maine
4 Electoral Votes
51.96%
100%
4.27%2.01%34.37%
Maryland
10 Electoral Votes
69.2%
100%
2%1%22.31%
Massachusetts
11 Electoral Votes
65.46%
100%
6.09%3.79%19.55%
Michigan
16 Electoral Votes
49.65%
74.56%
3.76%2.35%43.7%
Minnesota
10 Electoral Votes
55.23%
100%
5.49%0.87%33.13%
Mississippi
6 Electoral Votes
44%2%0%47%
100%
Missouri
10 Electoral Votes
39.2%4.19%3.14%50.27%
99.66%
Montana
3 Electoral Votes
33%6%2%37%
100%
Nebraska
5 Electoral Votes
31.68%5.51%1.65%52.62%
100%
Nevada
6 Electoral Votes
46.05%
71.37%
2.2%1.47%44.06%
New Hampshire
4 Electoral Votes
51.97%
99.89%
3.7%0.62%35.86%
New Jersey
14 Electoral Votes
49.21%
89.03%
3.58%2.91%40.26%
New Mexico
5 Electoral Votes
50.26%
100%
6.73%0.96%36.09%
New York
29 Electoral Votes
55.02%
100%
3.62%3.42%32.36%
North Carolina
15 Electoral Votes
52.14%
96.89%
1.66%0.3%42.27%
North Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
37%
100%
7%2%34%
Ohio
18 Electoral Votes
52.39%
94.55%
3.67%2.61%38.6%
Oklahoma
7 Electoral Votes
31.2%49.8%
100%
Oregon
7 Electoral Votes
52.46%
100%
3.16%5.36%32.13%
Pennsylvania
20 Electoral Votes
50.88%
98.39%
1.97%1.43%40.41%
Rhode Island
4 Electoral Votes
60.12%
100%
3.43%2.8%25.55%
South Carolina
9 Electoral Votes
44.52%3.46%0.41%48.77%
99.99%
South Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
39%5%46%
100%
Tennessee
11 Electoral Votes
37.63%5.38%1.79%41.22%
100%
Texas
38 Electoral Votes
41.2%5.64%1%1.44%47.38%
96.41%
Utah
6 Electoral Votes
29.54%3.8%24.12%1.46%37.06%
94.67%
Vermont
3 Electoral Votes
61.19%
100%
3%1%20.86%
Virginia
13 Electoral Votes
50.14%
92.68%
1.72%0.77%1.28%42.22%
Washington
12 Electoral Votes
52.26%
100%
3.79%1.86%34.04%
West Virginia
5 Electoral Votes
32.3%8.41%3.98%49.12%
100%
Wisconsin
10 Electoral Votes
48.19%
97.42%
4.27%2.1%38.99%
Wyoming
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Total
538 Electoral Votes
381
100% >270
3.72%2.75%1.92%135
National Methodology & Explanation

Our objective is to assess the accuracy of polling, not to predict the outcome of the election. The values depicted above intend to represent an aggregate view of state-level public polling. Our values can be thought of as the polling implied outcome; if polling is correct, the election's outcome should match our values.

Each state's outcome is treated as an independent event as is each candidate's percentage. In reality this is not the case. Outcomes are most certainly correlated based upon empirical information like geography and demographics. Our view, which is consistent with letting polling tell the story, is that any such correlation should be observable and expressed through polling.

Candidate totals are calculated using a quadratic local regression with an alpha of 80%; if too few polls are available a least-squares regression is used. The calculated value for each candidate’s regression, along with the variance, is used as input to calculate the probability that a given candidate's total will be greatest. A standard distribution is used to determine the likelihood of victory in a given state. Once each state's probability is known, a 51-dimension cartesian product is generated to assess the likelihood of receiving 270 or more electoral votes.

More thorough information containing technical details and our data collection criteria is available in our methodology series.

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