Recent Tweets

Matchup

Date Range

Sample

Interaction

Communication

Advertisement

2016 Presidential Polling Among Independents

Incumbent: Barack Obama (D) | 5 candidates | Election on November 8, 20161060 polls

November 23, 2016 at 6:06:51 PM CT HowWillAmericaVote.com Hillary Clinton (D) 174Donald Trump (R) 351 Alabama Donald Trump44% 9 Electoral Votes Alaska No Data 3 Electoral Votes Arizona Donald Trump45.76%Hillary Clinton35.56%Gary Johnson8.82%Jill Stein3.79% 11 Electoral Votes Arkansas Donald Trump55.61%Hillary Clinton20.86%Jill Stein7.49%Gary Johnson3.74% 6 Electoral Votes California Hillary Clinton40.92%Donald Trump28.94%Gary Johnson9.92%Jill Stein3.76% 55 Electoral Votes Colorado Donald Trump36.49%Hillary Clinton36.44%Gary Johnson9.77%Jill Stein5.24%Evan McMullin1% 9 Electoral Votes Connecticut Hillary Clinton44.62%Donald Trump35.69%Gary Johnson13.54%Jill Stein4% 7 Electoral Votes Delaware Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump26%Gary Johnson18%Jill Stein6% 3 Electoral Votes District of Columbia No Data 3 EVs Florida Donald Trump48.62%Hillary Clinton39.65%Gary Johnson4.93%Evan McMullin2%Jill Stein1.82% 29 Electoral Votes Georgia Donald Trump46.63%Hillary Clinton37.05%Gary Johnson11.19%Jill Stein7.38% 16 Electoral Votes Hawaii No Data 4 Electoral Votes Idaho Donald Trump34.6%Hillary Clinton29.17%Evan McMullin14%Gary Johnson10.13%Jill Stein3% 4 Electoral Votes Illinois Donald Trump36.83%Hillary Clinton35.97%Gary Johnson10.32%Jill Stein5.31% 20 Electoral Votes Indiana Donald Trump44.78%Hillary Clinton30.14%Gary Johnson15.55% 11 Electoral Votes Iowa Donald Trump40.97%Hillary Clinton39.15%Evan McMullin5%Gary Johnson4.79%Jill Stein4.31% 6 Electoral Votes Kansas Donald Trump42.22%Hillary Clinton36.85%Gary Johnson13.38%Jill Stein1.32% 6 Electoral Votes Kentucky Donald Trump62%Hillary Clinton29%Gary Johnson2%Jill Stein2%Evan McMullin2% 8 Electoral Votes Louisiana Donald Trump70%Hillary Clinton37.5%Gary Johnson13.5%Jill Stein4% 8 Electoral Votes Maine Hillary Clinton41.64%Donald Trump38.62%Gary Johnson9.77%Jill Stein2.28% 4 Electoral Votes Maryland Hillary Clinton53.16%Donald Trump29.24%Gary Johnson8%Jill Stein3% 10 Electoral Votes Massachusetts Hillary Clinton50.83%Donald Trump28.9%Gary Johnson8.25%Jill Stein2.51% 11 Electoral Votes Michigan Donald Trump41.09%Hillary Clinton35.28%Gary Johnson8.54%Jill Stein1.71% 16 Electoral Votes Minnesota Hillary Clinton41.23%Donald Trump36.03%Jill Stein3.85%Gary Johnson0.77% 10 Electoral Votes Mississippi Donald Trump54%Hillary Clinton25%Gary Johnson10%Jill Stein1% 6 Electoral Votes Missouri Donald Trump49.07%Hillary Clinton29.44%Gary Johnson11.48%Jill Stein5.02% 10 Electoral Votes Montana Donald Trump32%Hillary Clinton18%Gary Johnson15%Jill Stein3% 3 Electoral Votes Nebraska Donald Trump42.98%Hillary Clinton23.97%Gary Johnson18.18%Jill Stein3.31% 5 Electoral Votes Nevada Donald Trump46.14%Hillary Clinton31.33%Gary Johnson9.01%Jill Stein3.66% 6 Electoral Votes New Hampshire Hillary Clinton39.5%Donald Trump38.18%Gary Johnson9.24%Jill Stein3.78% 4 Electoral Votes New Jersey Donald Trump44.9%Hillary Clinton40.89%Gary Johnson6.12%Jill Stein4.08% 14 Electoral Votes New Mexico Hillary Clinton35.32%Donald Trump28.86%Gary Johnson24.38%Jill Stein4.48% 5 Electoral Votes New York Hillary Clinton42.21%Donald Trump35.32%Gary Johnson10.9%Jill Stein4.28% 29 Electoral Votes North Carolina Donald Trump45.32%Hillary Clinton41.15%Gary Johnson5.99%Jill Stein0.95% 15 Electoral Votes North Dakota Donald Trump33%Hillary Clinton26%Gary Johnson12%Jill Stein3% 3 Electoral Votes Ohio Donald Trump42.36%Hillary Clinton35.38%Gary Johnson8.69%Jill Stein4.51% 18 Electoral Votes Oklahoma Donald Trump48.1%Hillary Clinton26.5% 7 Electoral Votes Oregon Hillary Clinton38.28%Donald Trump32.71%Gary Johnson10.3%Jill Stein7.93% 7 Electoral Votes Pennsylvania Donald Trump42.72%Hillary Clinton34.24%Gary Johnson8.9%Jill Stein5.68% 20 Electoral Votes Rhode Island Donald Trump42.29%Hillary Clinton35.97%Gary Johnson7.91%Jill Stein4.74% 4 Electoral Votes South Carolina Donald Trump44.29%Hillary Clinton21.01%Gary Johnson11.02%Jill Stein2.87% 9 Electoral Votes South Dakota Hillary Clinton42%Donald Trump33%Gary Johnson9% 3 Electoral Votes Tennessee Donald Trump38.92%Hillary Clinton22.7%Gary Johnson12.43%Jill Stein3.78% 11 Electoral Votes Texas Donald Trump39.37%Hillary Clinton36.4%Gary Johnson12.57%Jill Stein7.19%Evan McMullin1% 38 Electoral Votes Utah Donald Trump30.25%Evan McMullin26.18%Hillary Clinton26%Gary Johnson6.3%Jill Stein3.4% 6 Electoral Votes Vermont Hillary Clinton14.84%Gary Johnson14.04%Jill Stein13.16%Donald Trump12.22% 3 Electoral Votes Virginia Hillary Clinton42.4%Donald Trump40.26%Gary Johnson4.51%Evan McMullin3.38%Jill Stein1.63% 13 Electoral Votes Washington Donald Trump44.32%Hillary Clinton39.28%Jill Stein3.6%Gary Johnson3.24% 12 Electoral Votes West Virginia Donald Trump52.87%Gary Johnson18.39%Hillary Clinton13.79%Jill Stein5.75% 5 Electoral Votes Wisconsin Hillary Clinton40.51%Donald Trump38.5%Gary Johnson7.75%Jill Stein4.25% 10 Electoral Votes Wyoming No Data 3 Electoral Votes
Clinton (D)Johnson (L)McMullin (I)Stein (G)Trump (R)
Alabama
9 Electoral Votes
44%
100%
Alaska
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Arizona
11 Electoral Votes
35.56%8.82%3.79%45.76%
93.76%
Arkansas
6 Electoral Votes
20.86%3.74%7.49%55.61%
100%
California
55 Electoral Votes
40.92%
83.32%
9.92%3.76%28.94%
Colorado
9 Electoral Votes
36.44%9.77%1%5.24%36.49%
50.24%
Connecticut
7 Electoral Votes
44.62%
100%
13.54%4%35.69%
Delaware
3 Electoral Votes
39%
100%
18%6%26%
District of Columbia
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Florida
29 Electoral Votes
39.65%4.93%2%1.82%48.62%
100%
Georgia
16 Electoral Votes
37.05%11.19%7.38%46.63%
81.08%
Hawaii
4 Electoral Votes
No Data
Idaho
4 Electoral Votes
29.17%10.13%14%3%34.6%
99.96%
Illinois
20 Electoral Votes
35.97%10.32%5.31%36.83%
54.44%
Indiana
11 Electoral Votes
30.14%15.55%44.78%
100%
Iowa
6 Electoral Votes
39.15%4.79%5%4.31%40.97%
100%
Kansas
6 Electoral Votes
36.85%13.38%1.32%42.22%
99.24%
Kentucky
8 Electoral Votes
29%2%2%2%62%
100%
Louisiana
8 Electoral Votes
37.5%13.5%4%70%
99.17%
Maine
4 Electoral Votes
41.64%
89.71%
9.77%2.28%38.62%
Maryland
10 Electoral Votes
53.16%
100%
8%3%29.24%
Massachusetts
11 Electoral Votes
50.83%
100%
8.25%2.51%28.9%
Michigan
16 Electoral Votes
35.28%8.54%1.71%41.09%
68.78%
Minnesota
10 Electoral Votes
41.23%
100%
0.77%3.85%36.03%
Mississippi
6 Electoral Votes
25%10%1%54%
100%
Missouri
10 Electoral Votes
29.44%11.48%5.02%49.07%
99.95%
Montana
3 Electoral Votes
18%15%3%32%
100%
Nebraska
5 Electoral Votes
23.97%18.18%3.31%42.98%
100%
Nevada
6 Electoral Votes
31.33%9.01%3.66%46.14%
98.57%
New Hampshire
4 Electoral Votes
39.5%
56.65%
9.24%3.78%38.18%
New Jersey
14 Electoral Votes
40.89%6.12%4.08%44.9%
78.12%
New Mexico
5 Electoral Votes
35.32%
100%
24.38%4.48%28.86%
New York
29 Electoral Votes
42.21%
86.37%
10.9%4.28%35.32%
North Carolina
15 Electoral Votes
41.15%5.99%0.95%45.32%
74.42%
North Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
26%12%3%33%
100%
Ohio
18 Electoral Votes
35.38%8.69%4.51%42.36%
78.97%
Oklahoma
7 Electoral Votes
26.5%48.1%
100%
Oregon
7 Electoral Votes
38.28%
92.57%
10.3%7.93%32.71%
Pennsylvania
20 Electoral Votes
34.24%8.9%5.68%42.72%
83.61%
Rhode Island
4 Electoral Votes
35.97%7.91%4.74%42.29%
100%
South Carolina
9 Electoral Votes
21.01%11.02%2.87%44.29%
99.81%
South Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
42%
100%
9%33%
Tennessee
11 Electoral Votes
22.7%12.43%3.78%38.92%
100%
Texas
38 Electoral Votes
36.4%12.57%1%7.19%39.37%
60.63%
Utah
6 Electoral Votes
26%6.3%26.18%3.4%30.25%
64.65%
Vermont
3 Electoral Votes
14.84%
52.67%
14.04%13.16%12.22%
Virginia
13 Electoral Votes
42.4%
58.37%
4.51%3.38%1.63%40.26%
Washington
12 Electoral Votes
39.28%3.24%3.6%44.32%
98.19%
West Virginia
5 Electoral Votes
13.79%18.39%5.75%52.87%
100%
Wisconsin
10 Electoral Votes
40.51%
60.22%
7.75%4.25%38.5%
Wyoming
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Total
538 Electoral Votes
1749.44%3.61%4.12%351
99.23% >270
National Methodology & Explanation

Our objective is to assess the accuracy of polling, not to predict the outcome of the election. The values depicted above intend to represent an aggregate view of state-level public polling. Our values can be thought of as the polling implied outcome; if polling is correct, the election's outcome should match our values.

Each state's outcome is treated as an independent event as is each candidate's percentage. In reality this is not the case. Outcomes are most certainly correlated based upon empirical information like geography and demographics. Our view, which is consistent with letting polling tell the story, is that any such correlation should be observable and expressed through polling.

Candidate totals are calculated using a quadratic local regression with an alpha of 80%; if too few polls are available a least-squares regression is used. The calculated value for each candidate’s regression, along with the variance, is used as input to calculate the probability that a given candidate's total will be greatest. A standard distribution is used to determine the likelihood of victory in a given state. Once each state's probability is known, a 51-dimension cartesian product is generated to assess the likelihood of receiving 270 or more electoral votes.

More thorough information containing technical details and our data collection criteria is available in our methodology series.

Authentication Required...

Create an Account

Entering an email will eventually grant you the ability to create articles; this feature is coming soon. You may also verify your account later.