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2016 Presidential Polling Among Republicans

Incumbent: Barack Obama (D) | 5 candidates | Election on November 8, 20161060 polls

November 23, 2016 at 6:06:51 PM CT HowWillAmericaVote.com Gary Johnson (L) 7Donald Trump (R) 509 Alabama No Data 9 Electoral Votes Alaska No Data 3 Electoral Votes Arizona Donald Trump77.33%Hillary Clinton11.31%Gary Johnson2.8%Jill Stein0.68% 11 Electoral Votes Arkansas Donald Trump85.23%Hillary Clinton6.06%Gary Johnson5.3%Jill Stein0% 6 Electoral Votes California Donald Trump80.75%Hillary Clinton9.4%Gary Johnson3.4%Jill Stein1.8% 55 Electoral Votes Colorado Donald Trump80%Hillary Clinton10.54%Gary Johnson3%Jill Stein0.15%Evan McMullin0% 9 Electoral Votes Connecticut Donald Trump73.28%Hillary Clinton11.45%Gary Johnson7.63%Jill Stein3.44% 7 Electoral Votes Delaware Donald Trump78%Hillary Clinton8%Gary Johnson5%Jill Stein1% 3 Electoral Votes District of Columbia No Data 3 EVs Florida Donald Trump79.73%Hillary Clinton11.06%Gary Johnson2%Jill Stein1.1%Evan McMullin1% 29 Electoral Votes Georgia Donald Trump89.59%Hillary Clinton6.7%Gary Johnson1.92%Jill Stein0.01% 16 Electoral Votes Hawaii No Data 4 Electoral Votes Idaho Donald Trump74.06%Evan McMullin10%Hillary Clinton5.33%Gary Johnson2.14%Jill Stein2% 4 Electoral Votes Illinois Donald Trump75.59%Hillary Clinton15.67%Gary Johnson1.52%Jill Stein0.51% 20 Electoral Votes Indiana Donald Trump86.31%Gary Johnson4.53%Hillary Clinton4.06% 11 Electoral Votes Iowa Donald Trump82.91%Hillary Clinton7.2%Gary Johnson5.12%Evan McMullin1%Jill Stein0.33% 6 Electoral Votes Kansas Donald Trump77.53%Hillary Clinton9.64%Gary Johnson5.76%Jill Stein1.19% 6 Electoral Votes Kentucky Donald Trump84%Hillary Clinton8%Evan McMullin2%Gary Johnson1%Jill Stein1% 8 Electoral Votes Louisiana Donald Trump76.44%Gary Johnson3.86%Hillary Clinton2.33%Jill Stein0% 8 Electoral Votes Maine Donald Trump76.93%Hillary Clinton13.94%Gary Johnson3.45%Jill Stein0.99% 4 Electoral Votes Maryland Donald Trump72.36%Hillary Clinton15.75%Gary Johnson8%Jill Stein0% 10 Electoral Votes Massachusetts Donald Trump73.46%Gary Johnson16.28%Hillary Clinton8.58%Jill Stein0.57% 11 Electoral Votes Michigan Donald Trump75.97%Hillary Clinton9.37%Gary Johnson3.28%Jill Stein2.09% 16 Electoral Votes Minnesota Donald Trump84.97%Gary Johnson13.61%Hillary Clinton7.69%Jill Stein0% 10 Electoral Votes Mississippi Donald Trump88%Hillary Clinton4%Gary Johnson3%Jill Stein0% 6 Electoral Votes Missouri Donald Trump91.67%Hillary Clinton4.35%Gary Johnson2.73%Jill Stein0.09% 10 Electoral Votes Montana Donald Trump74%Gary Johnson5%Hillary Clinton4%Jill Stein0% 3 Electoral Votes Nebraska Donald Trump79.58%Hillary Clinton8.9%Gary Johnson5.5%Jill Stein0.52% 5 Electoral Votes Nevada Donald Trump86.1%Hillary Clinton9.06%Gary Johnson2.27%Jill Stein0% 6 Electoral Votes New Hampshire Donald Trump79.44%Hillary Clinton11.23%Gary Johnson3.35%Jill Stein0.36% 4 Electoral Votes New Jersey Donald Trump78.38%Hillary Clinton8.5%Gary Johnson7.78%Jill Stein0.74% 14 Electoral Votes New Mexico Donald Trump76.28%Hillary Clinton13.36%Gary Johnson8.33%Jill Stein0% 5 Electoral Votes New York Donald Trump73.45%Hillary Clinton11.62%Gary Johnson6.08%Jill Stein-0.12% 29 Electoral Votes North Carolina Donald Trump86.87%Hillary Clinton7.79%Gary Johnson1.7%Jill Stein0.21% 15 Electoral Votes North Dakota Donald Trump81%Gary Johnson5%Hillary Clinton4%Jill Stein0% 3 Electoral Votes Ohio Donald Trump76.93%Hillary Clinton15.14%Gary Johnson3.72%Jill Stein0.54% 18 Electoral Votes Oklahoma Gary Johnson4.6%Hillary Clinton4.4% 7 Electoral Votes Oregon Donald Trump78.61%Hillary Clinton7.97%Gary Johnson5.99%Jill Stein-1.01% 7 Electoral Votes Pennsylvania Donald Trump80.76%Hillary Clinton10.86%Gary Johnson3.25%Jill Stein0.07% 20 Electoral Votes Rhode Island Donald Trump68.37%Hillary Clinton14.29%Jill Stein11.22%Gary Johnson6.12% 4 Electoral Votes South Carolina Donald Trump77%Gary Johnson5%Hillary Clinton4%Jill Stein0% 9 Electoral Votes South Dakota Donald Trump74%Hillary Clinton10%Gary Johnson5% 3 Electoral Votes Tennessee Donald Trump79.78%Gary Johnson7.3%Hillary Clinton1.12%Jill Stein0% 11 Electoral Votes Texas Donald Trump89.45%Hillary Clinton4.22%Gary Johnson2.91%Jill Stein0.6%Evan McMullin0% 38 Electoral Votes Utah Donald Trump57.13%Evan McMullin30.64%Hillary Clinton4.14%Gary Johnson2.98%Jill Stein0.1% 6 Electoral Votes Vermont Donald Trump63.34%Hillary Clinton10.76%Gary Johnson9.49%Jill Stein0.63% 3 Electoral Votes Virginia Donald Trump84.35%Hillary Clinton8.96%Evan McMullin1.94%Gary Johnson1.78%Jill Stein-0.02% 13 Electoral Votes Washington Donald Trump82.97%Hillary Clinton10.74%Gary Johnson7.95%Jill Stein0.03% 12 Electoral Votes West Virginia Donald Trump81.68%Hillary Clinton6.87%Gary Johnson6.87%Jill Stein1.53% 5 Electoral Votes Wisconsin Donald Trump80.56%Hillary Clinton8.83%Gary Johnson5.45%Jill Stein0.52% 10 Electoral Votes Wyoming No Data 3 Electoral Votes
Clinton (D)Johnson (L)McMullin (I)Stein (G)Trump (R)
Alabama
9 Electoral Votes
No Data
Alaska
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Arizona
11 Electoral Votes
11.31%2.8%0.68%77.33%
99.01%
Arkansas
6 Electoral Votes
6.06%5.3%0%85.23%
100%
California
55 Electoral Votes
9.4%3.4%1.8%80.75%
100%
Colorado
9 Electoral Votes
10.54%3%0%0.15%80%
100%
Connecticut
7 Electoral Votes
11.45%7.63%3.44%73.28%
100%
Delaware
3 Electoral Votes
8%5%1%78%
100%
District of Columbia
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Florida
29 Electoral Votes
11.06%2%1%1.1%79.73%
100%
Georgia
16 Electoral Votes
6.7%1.92%0.01%89.59%
100%
Hawaii
4 Electoral Votes
No Data
Idaho
4 Electoral Votes
5.33%2.14%10%2%74.06%
100%
Illinois
20 Electoral Votes
15.67%1.52%0.51%75.59%
100%
Indiana
11 Electoral Votes
4.06%4.53%86.31%
100%
Iowa
6 Electoral Votes
7.2%5.12%1%0.33%82.91%
100%
Kansas
6 Electoral Votes
9.64%5.76%1.19%77.53%
100%
Kentucky
8 Electoral Votes
8%1%2%1%84%
100%
Louisiana
8 Electoral Votes
2.33%3.86%0%76.44%
100%
Maine
4 Electoral Votes
13.94%3.45%0.99%76.93%
100%
Maryland
10 Electoral Votes
15.75%8%0%72.36%
100%
Massachusetts
11 Electoral Votes
8.58%16.28%0.57%73.46%
100%
Michigan
16 Electoral Votes
9.37%3.28%2.09%75.97%
98.54%
Minnesota
10 Electoral Votes
7.69%13.61%0%84.97%
100%
Mississippi
6 Electoral Votes
4%3%0%88%
100%
Missouri
10 Electoral Votes
4.35%2.73%0.09%91.67%
100%
Montana
3 Electoral Votes
4%5%0%74%
100%
Nebraska
5 Electoral Votes
8.9%5.5%0.52%79.58%
100%
Nevada
6 Electoral Votes
9.06%2.27%0%86.1%
100%
New Hampshire
4 Electoral Votes
11.23%3.35%0.36%79.44%
99.71%
New Jersey
14 Electoral Votes
8.5%7.78%0.74%78.38%
99.97%
New Mexico
5 Electoral Votes
13.36%8.33%0%76.28%
100%
New York
29 Electoral Votes
11.62%6.08%-0.12%73.45%
100%
North Carolina
15 Electoral Votes
7.79%1.7%0.21%86.87%
100%
North Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
4%5%0%81%
100%
Ohio
18 Electoral Votes
15.14%3.72%0.54%76.93%
100%
Oklahoma
7 Electoral Votes
4.4%4.6%
100%
Oregon
7 Electoral Votes
7.97%5.99%-1.01%78.61%
100%
Pennsylvania
20 Electoral Votes
10.86%3.25%0.07%80.76%
100%
Rhode Island
4 Electoral Votes
14.29%6.12%11.22%68.37%
100%
South Carolina
9 Electoral Votes
4%5%0%77%
100%
South Dakota
3 Electoral Votes
10%5%74%
100%
Tennessee
11 Electoral Votes
1.12%7.3%0%79.78%
100%
Texas
38 Electoral Votes
4.22%2.91%0%0.6%89.45%
100%
Utah
6 Electoral Votes
4.14%2.98%30.64%0.1%57.13%
100%
Vermont
3 Electoral Votes
10.76%9.49%0.63%63.34%
100%
Virginia
13 Electoral Votes
8.96%1.78%1.94%-0.02%84.35%
100%
Washington
12 Electoral Votes
10.74%7.95%0.03%82.97%
100%
West Virginia
5 Electoral Votes
6.87%6.87%1.53%81.68%
100%
Wisconsin
10 Electoral Votes
8.83%5.45%0.52%80.56%
100%
Wyoming
3 Electoral Votes
No Data
Total
538 Electoral Votes
8.87%72.66%0.7%509
100% >270
National Methodology & Explanation

Our objective is to assess the accuracy of polling, not to predict the outcome of the election. The values depicted above intend to represent an aggregate view of state-level public polling. Our values can be thought of as the polling implied outcome; if polling is correct, the election's outcome should match our values.

Each state's outcome is treated as an independent event as is each candidate's percentage. In reality this is not the case. Outcomes are most certainly correlated based upon empirical information like geography and demographics. Our view, which is consistent with letting polling tell the story, is that any such correlation should be observable and expressed through polling.

Candidate totals are calculated using a quadratic local regression with an alpha of 80%; if too few polls are available a least-squares regression is used. The calculated value for each candidate’s regression, along with the variance, is used as input to calculate the probability that a given candidate's total will be greatest. A standard distribution is used to determine the likelihood of victory in a given state. Once each state's probability is known, a 51-dimension cartesian product is generated to assess the likelihood of receiving 270 or more electoral votes.

More thorough information containing technical details and our data collection criteria is available in our methodology series.

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